2026 Oscars predictions: Our expert's picks in every category

Tears person been shed. Heads person been shaved. Blimps person been moored.

The movie that broke the all-time grounds for nominations came retired astir a twelvemonth ago, portion the favourite to triumph champion representation deed theaters successful September.

So, yes, it’s clip for some a reset and a coronation, clip to (finally) adjacent the publication connected an awards play that, until recently, felt abbreviated connected surprises and agelong connected ... well, conscionable plain long.

The exhaustive and exhausting buildup to the Oscars is astir implicit and the 2 movies that person the champion changeable astatine winning the apical prize — Paul Thomas Anderson’s darkly comedic action-thriller “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s genre-defying American fearfulness communicative “Sinners” — besides hap to beryllium the champion films released successful 2025.

There’s nary atrocious choice. But take we indispensable — and not conscionable for champion picture. Twenty-three different categories volition beryllium awarded Sunday astatine the 98th Academy Awards too. So commencement up your Oscar pools and work connected for last Oscar predictions. We’re astir astatine the decorativeness line.

Picture

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”

Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could surprise: “Sinners”

In presumption of worthiness, “One Battle” vs. “Sinners” is precise overmuch a 1A/1B situation, with Anderson’s epic having the flimsy edge. But with the Oscars, prime is often secondary to an awards narrative. Both movies person taste relevance. Both won captious acclaim and, to a degree, commercialized success. (Though “One Battle” wasn’t the blockbuster “Sinners” was, it inactive grossed much than immoderate different movie successful Anderson’s career.) “Sinners” scored 16 Oscar nominations, the astir successful history; “One Battle” was adjacent down with 13.

“One Battle” won with the Producers Guild, the precursor that astir accurately predicts champion picture. It besides bushed “Sinners” astatine the British Academy Film Awards. “Sinners” landed the formed prize astatine the Actor Awards, which is not a reliable precursor but did springiness Coogler’s movie a large infinitesimal successful beforehand of an assemblage portion Oscar ballots were out. Does the academy’s preferential voting system, successful which members fertile the champion representation nominees, payment either movie? Some accidental it favors “Sinners.” But the PGA, which besides uses ranked voting, went with “One Battle.”

Might visibility determine it? Coogler and his “Sinners” squad person been a ubiquitous beingness astatine events passim the awards season. Anderson mostly shuns campaigning, preferring the enactment to talk for itself. “‘Sinners’ feels similar a genuine solemnisation of Black accomplishment and joy, which feels similar something,” says a seasoned awards consultant. “Outside of loving PTA and his movies, ‘One Battle’ doesn’t person a personality. They mightiness permission immoderate awards connected the table.” But helium thinks it’s inactive winning champion picture. So bash I.

Director

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”

Will win: Anderson

If “Sinners” does triumph champion picture, how’s this for a consolation: Anderson, who came into the twelvemonth having ne'er won contempt 11 nominations, volition spell location with 2 Oscars — manager and adapted screenplay.

Lead actress

(Agata Grzybowska / Focus Features)

Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

Will win: Buckley

I’ll ever subordinate Buckley and “Hamnet” with the representation of leaving the movie’s premiere astatine Telluride and seeing a pistillate sobbing truthful hard that a person had to prop her up against the partition to support her from collapsing successful the walkway. As I wrote afterward, “Buckley’s searching, searing crook seems destined to beryllium lauded countless times these adjacent fewer months, a show that is arsenic intolerable to disregard arsenic the quality she plays.” She’s won everything else. Here’s her last reward.

Lead actor

(Warner Bros. Entertainment)

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Will win: Jordan
Could surprise: Chalamet

Is it arrogant to privation to beryllium great? Is it presumptuous to accidental that an histrion has an Oscar successful the container 2 weeks earlier the ceremony? I’ve been pondering these questions since I sent retired a newsletter saying that Chalamet would beryllium winning this Oscar “in a walk.” After that landed successful inboxes, I heard from a fig of voters conveying their reservations astir young Timothée. Basically, their hesitancy could beryllium boiled down to, arsenic 1 shaper wrote, “He’s a cocky small s—.”

This cognition mostly seems to travel from Chalamet’s code astatine the Screen Actors Guild Awards past year, when, accepting the pb histrion grant for playing Bob Dylan successful “A Complete Unknown,” helium had the audacity to accidental that helium was “in pursuit of greatness.”

“I cognize radical don’t usually speech similar that, but I privation to beryllium 1 of the greats,” helium continued, thereby violating an unwritten Hollywood codification that you request to astatine slightest unreal to beryllium humble oregon you’ll find yourself connected the receiving extremity of a Vogue header accusing you of “manosphere-enabled overconfidence.”

After not winning astatine the BAFTAs oregon the Actor Awards, it would look that Chalamet is astir apt not going to instrumentality the Oscar this year, due to the fact that A) radical conflate the quality of Marty Mauser, the talented, selfish self-promoter, with the histrion playing him; B) Chalamet’s “too young” and needs to “pay his dues” truthful helium tin triumph a decennary from present for a movie that, knowing the Oscars, volition beryllium the 15th champion of his vocation (“Hooah!”); and C) radical deliberation he’s a “cocky small s—.”

If Jordan wins arsenic helium did astatine the Actor Awards for his career-best enactment playing identical twins Smoke and Stack successful “Sinners,” bully connected him. I’ve talked with Jordan a fig of times implicit the years, and helium seems genuinely humble astir his beingness and work. He’s a movie star. (Like Chalamet!) And helium brings his ma to awards shows. (Like Chalamet ... erstwhile he’s not taking woman Kylie Jenner.) Maybe helium adjacent respects ballet and opera. (Unlike Chalamet?)

Supporting actress

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Will win: Madigan
Could surprise: Taylor

Mosaku narrates “Sinners,” delivers successful respective cardinal scenes, took the BAFTA grant and could easy triumph the Oscar if there’s a “Sinners” wave. Taylor sets the array for “One Battle,” won the Globe and could easy triumph the Oscar if there’s a “One Battle” wave. Madigan earned the lone information “Weapons” received, a atrocious sign, but she appeals to old-guard academy voters, adjacent if her movie mightiness not. (The “Sentimental Value” women volition divided the movie’s support.) So who wins? Who knows. But does playing an iconic quality that inspires a super-popular Halloween costume number for something? I’m betting it will.

Supporting actor

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

Will win: Penn
Could surprise: Skarsgård

Chalamet gets dinged for aspiring to greatness, and Penn’s astir to triumph his 3rd Oscar simply for being large — and not talking astir it. Nor showing up to the BAFTAs and Actor Awards to cod prizes. (Maybe they wouldn’t fto him smoke, which, judging from an ashtray connected the table, helium did passim the Golden Globes.) If helium wins, Penn volition articulation Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand and Walter Brennan (who died from emphysema ... conscionable a heads-up, Sean) arsenic three-time Oscar winners. (Katharine Hepburn is the lone histrion to triumph four.)

Adapted screenplay

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Bugonia,” Will Tracy
“Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Will win: “One Battle After Another”

And here’s that 2nd Oscar for Anderson.

Original screenplay

(Eli Ade / Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi; publication collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler

Will win: “Sinners”

And here’s astatine slightest 1 Oscar for Coogler.

Animated feature

(Netflix)

“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie oregon the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”

Will win: “KPop Demon Hunters”

The earworm-loaded “KPop” conscionable swept the animation industry’s Annie Awards, winning each 10 of its nominated categories. It’s the astir fashionable movie successful the past of Netflix, and, if you’re a elector with (grand)kids, you’ve astir apt watched it — and enjoyed it — together, oh, astatine slightest 3 (dozen) times.

Documentary feature

(Netflix)

“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me successful the Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“The Perfect Neighbor”

Will win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Could surprise: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

“The Perfect Neighbor,” the true-crime documentary astir a Florida Black azygous parent killed successful 2023 by her achromatic neighbor, has racked up much than 50 cardinal views since its October debut connected Netflix. In years past, that would springiness it a immense advantage. But this year, voters are required to certify done the academy’s screening country portal that they person viewed each nominated films successful each class to beryllium eligible to ballot successful that category. And you cognize what? It inactive has a immense advantage.

International feature

(Neon)

“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirât”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”

Will win: “Sentimental Value”
Could surprise: “The Secret Agent”

Never underestimate the passionateness of Brazil, which helped powerfulness “I’m Still Here” to a triumph present past year. But successful a contention betwixt the 2 films that are besides nominated for champion picture, spell with “Sentimental Value,” which secured 9 nods to 4 for “The Secret Agent.” Its tender communicative of daddy issues, sibling emotion and however streaming is ruining accepted cinema is wholly relatable.

Casting

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Hamnet,” Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme,” Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent,” Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners,” Francine Maisler

Will win: “Sinners”

Is determination anyone who hasn’t worked with Maisler, who has formed movies for Michael Mann, Terrence Malick, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve, among countless others? She adjacent formed the Roy household successful “Succession,” for crying retired loud. Maisler is simply a fable and the cleanable prime for the archetypal Oscar successful this brand-new category.

Cinematography

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“Frankenstein,” Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme,” Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another,” Michael Bauman
“Sinners,” Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams,” Adolpho Veloso

Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Could surprise: “Sinners” oregon “Train Dreams”

This is the year’s hardest class to predict. You person Bauman and the vintage large-format VistaVision camerawork and those gorgeous nighttime scenes and the thrilling car pursuit finale. You person Arkapaw’s dynamic usage of the 65-pound Imax camera and the indelible surreal philharmonic country successful the juke joint. You person Veloso’s immersive, painterly enactment successful a 3:2 facet ratio that gives you the feeling that you’re gazing done a model into the past. Arkapaw would beryllium the archetypal pistillate to triumph this category. But Bauman won with the American Society of Cinematographers, BAFTA and the British Society of Cinematographers, and those wins springiness him the slightest of edges.

Costume design

(Ken Woroner / Netflix)

“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley
“Hamnet,” Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme,” Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter

Will win: “Frankenstein”
Could surprise: “Sinners”

Hawley won with BAFTA and the Costume Design Guild, truthful it’s hard to prime against her sumptuous, bejeweled-tone instrumentality connected Guillermo del Toro’s (Mia) Gothic-Victorian fearfulness tale.

Film editing

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“F1,” Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another,” Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value,” Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners,” Michael P. Shawver

Will win: “One Battle After Another”

“One Battle After Another” moves with breakneck speed, its 162 minutes going by successful a flash. Jurgensen earned this Oscar for the chopped of the closing car pursuit alone.

Makeup and hairstyling

(Ken Woroner / Netflix)

“Frankenstein,” Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho,” Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine,” Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister,” Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Will win: “Frankenstein”

“It’s alive!”

Original score

(Warner Bros. Entertainment)

“Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet,” Max Richter
“One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson

Will win: “Sinners”

Göransson is connected a roll, connected way to triumph his 3rd Oscar successful this category, pursuing “Black Panther” successful 2019 and “Oppenheimer” successful 2024. At 41, he’s a menace to eclipse John Williams’ 5 wins, though Williams’ 54 nominations is good retired of reach. Next up: Reteaming with Christopher Nolan connected “The Odyssey.” Same clip adjacent year?

Original song

(Netflix)

“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”; euphony and lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”; euphony and lyric by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”; euphony and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”; euphony and lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”; euphony by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave

Will win: “Golden”

“KPop’s” signature opus is truthful fashionable that adjacent the signature opus from the movie nominated for a record-breaking 16 Oscars doesn’t person a accidental against it.

Production design

(Ken Woroner / Netflix)

“Frankenstein,” accumulation design: Tamara Deverell; acceptable decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet,” accumulation design: Fiona Crombie; acceptable decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme,” accumulation design: Jack Fisk; acceptable decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another,” accumulation design: Florencia Martin; acceptable decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners,” accumulation design: Hannah Beachler; acceptable decoration: Monique Champagne

Will win: “Frankenstein”

“Frankenstein’s” lavish, painstakingly crafted sets person swept done the awards season, winning astatine BAFTA and with the creation directors and acceptable decorators guilds, making it the prohibitive favorite. If that’s the case, it feels similar it’s clip to springiness the large Fisk an honorary Oscar astatine the adjacent Governors Awards. He’s beyond overdue.

Sound

(Warner Bros. Pictures)

“F1,” Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein,” Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another,” José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners,” Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirāt,” Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas

Will win: “F1”
Could surprise: “Sinners”

Ggghhzzzzzzzhhhhhhhggggggzzzzzzzeeeeeong! Hard to bushed the purr of a high-tech contention car.

Visual effects

( 20th Century Studios)

“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“F1,” Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World Rebirth,” David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus,” Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners,” Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

Will win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

The ocular wonders of Pandora ne'er turn old, adjacent erstwhile the storytelling feels similar it’s spinning its wheels.

Animated short

(Butterfly)

“Butterfly”
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”

Will win: “Butterfly”
Could surprise: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”

“Butterfly,” a gorgeous, painterly look astatine the beingness of Jewish French-Algerian swimmer Alfred Nakache, who competed successful the Olympics earlier and aft the Holocaust, is my choice. But the stop-motion “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a grimy communicative of greed that would delight Dickens and Tim Burton, has its fans — and is the lone 1 of this radical nominated astatine the Annie Awards.

Documentary short

(Netflix)

“All the Empty Rooms”
“Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”

Will win: “All the Empty Rooms”

Parents took CBS News newsman Steve Hartman and lensman Lou Bopp wrong the untouched bedrooms of their children who were killed successful schoolhouse shootings. Needless to say, it breaks your heart.

Live enactment short

(Misia Films & Preromanbritain)

“Butcher’s Stain”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
“The Singers”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Will win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Could surprise: “A Friend of Dorothy”

“Two People Exchanging Saliva,” a “Carol”-esque communicative acceptable successful a dystopian aboriginal wherever kissing is amerciable and punishable by death, is the astir ambitious and afloat realized of the nominees, and its characters’ absorption carries an urgency. “A Friend of Dororthy,” meanwhile, is centered connected a cute aged woman who volition lukewarm your heart. Are voters feeling sentimental? Flip a coin.