After Surging 4,885%, Is Sandisk Stock Still a Buy? Here's What History Says.

It is astir hard to judge that Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) started trading connected the Nasdaq astatine astir $35 per stock connected Feb. 13, 2025.

In conscionable implicit 16 months, it has surged immoderate 4,885% to $1,745 per stock arsenic of July 2. Over the past 12 months, Sandisk has returned 3,780%, and it is up 635% twelvemonth to date.

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The numbers are conscionable staggering, arsenic immoderate investors fortunate capable to bargain astatine the IPO tin attest. But aft specified an astonishing run, tin Sandisk banal support it going, oregon is it clip to instrumentality immoderate profits?

Supercycle for Sandisk

While Sandisk banal is "new" to the markets, it's been astir a agelong clip and really was a nationalist institution successful different life. The shaper of NAND flash representation drives and solid-state retention drives for enterprises, information centers, and hyperscalers was a nationalist institution from 1995 to 2016, erstwhile it was acquired by Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC). Back then, it was mostly known for retail retention flash drives, representation cards, and USB sticks.

Now it is simply a representation and retention thrust for enterprises, capitalizing connected the immense request created by artificial quality (AI) computing. The proviso of information retention and representation for AI computing cannot support up with the booming demand, creating a supercycle for the starring stocks successful this space, similar Sandisk. The immense request allows Sandisk to rise prices, pushing gross higher.

In the latest quarter, Sandisk grew gross 97% sequentially, meaning from the erstwhile quarter, to $5.95 billion. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net were up 247% to $23.41 per share. In this quarter, its fourth, Sandisk anticipates gross volition emergence betwixt 30% and 38% and net per stock volition emergence betwixt 28% and 41%.

Within its rapidly increasing information halfway business, Sandisk has much than $11 cardinal successful fiscal guarantees done caller contracts. It besides has $42 cardinal successful backlog from precocious signed deals.

"Our exertion and merchandise portfolio are intersecting this bonzer request astatine precisely the close moment," CEO David Goeckeler said connected the net call.

Is Sandisk inactive a buy?

The precocious request for retention and representation is not slowing down anytime soon. Some analysts spot the demand/supply imbalance lasting into 2030, and possibly beyond. At an capitalist league successful May, Goeckeler said the flash representation marketplace volition stay "undersupplied for a agelong play of time."