AI Is Keeping DRAM Prices High — Here’s Exactly When the Market Finally Loosens Up

3 weeks ago 9

Rich Duprey

Sun, July 19, 2026 astatine 11:06 AM CDT 4 min read

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HBM volition devour 30% of full DRAM wafer capableness by 2027, leaving proviso capable to conscionable lone 60% of projected demand.
New fabs instrumentality anyplace from 12 to 24 months to scope highest output, and UBS does not expect DRAM proviso and request to equilibrium until Q2 2028.
Morgan Stanley projects representation volition relationship for 40% of AI superior expenditures by 2030, signaling request that outlasts today's shortage.
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The AI roar has transformed the representation spot marketplace into 1 of technology's hottest -- and tightest -- segments. As hyperscale information centers contention to physique AI infrastructure, request for high-bandwidth representation (HBM) has exploded, driving DRAM gross sharply higher portion keeping proviso nether aggravated pressure.

a coagulated achromatic line, a coagulated greenish line, and a bluish dotted line. All 3 lines mostly amusement an upward inclination from near to right, indicating growth.

That imbalance isn't apt to vanish anytime soon. TrendForce projects HBM wafer input astatine the industry's 3 largest manufacturers volition relationship for 22% of full DRAM wafer input by the extremity of 2026, rising to 30% by the extremity of 2027. Every wafer devoted to HBM is 1 that can't beryllium utilized to nutrient accepted DRAM, keeping proviso constrained and prices elevated.

For investors expecting a speedy cooldown, the information points to a slower path. While caller capableness is coming, meaningful alleviation is improbable earlier 2028.

AI Demand Has Reshaped the DRAM Cycle

Cloud providers and enterprises are reserving HBM capableness years successful advance, prompting manufacturers to prioritize these premium chips implicit accepted DDR5 memory.

TrendForce estimates HBM volition relationship for astir 9% of full DRAM spot proviso successful 2026 earlier climbing to 13% successful 2027. Because HBM requires much precocious manufacturing and consumes much wafer capableness than accepted DRAM, accumulation of modular representation remains constrained.

According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung controls astir 38% of the planetary DRAM market, followed by SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) astatine 29% and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) astatine 22%. Their caller net spot has been driven mostly by AI demand.

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Unlike erstwhile roar cycles, manufacturers person resisted assertive expansion. Industry superior spending is expected to emergence from $53.7 cardinal successful 2025 to $61.3 cardinal successful 2026, but astir of that concern is dedicated to HBM alternatively than wide DRAM capacity. Some forecasts suggest proviso could inactive conscionable lone astir 60% of projected request by the extremity of 2027, helping support prices elevated.

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