Airbnb hotels and experiences push could add $1.8B to 2030 revenue, Jefferies estimates

Analysts astatine Jefferies task that each of the 3 maturation drivers -- hotels, experiences, and instrumentality complaint enlargement -- could lend astir 1 percent constituent to yearly gross maturation betwixt 2025 and 2030, underpinning estimates that present beryllium supra Wall Street consensus.

Airbnb integrated autarkic hotels into its halfway level past year, initially launching successful 3 markets earlier expanding to astir 20. Jefferies views hotels arsenic a mode for Airbnb to code usage cases historically unsuitable for location rentals, including one-night stays, concern travel, and last-minute bookings, portion besides filling proviso gaps successful markets prone to seasonal request spikes. The steadfast estimates Airbnb's stock of online bookings for autarkic hotels volition turn from astir 1% contiguous to 3.5% by 2030, adding astir $1 cardinal to 2030 revenue.

On the experiences side, Jefferies argues Airbnb is good positioned to seizure a larger portion of the planetary question experiences marketplace fixed the pre-arrival enactment betwixt guests and hosts, which the steadfast sees arsenic a earthy cross-sell opportunity. Of the astir $280 cardinal spent globally connected experiences, lone astir $80 cardinal is presently booked online, compared to a 65% online penetration complaint for lodging. Jefferies expects online experiences bookings to scope astir $150 cardinal by 2030 and sees Airbnb's stock rising from 1.5% to 3% implicit that period, contributing $800 cardinal to 2030 revenue.

Take complaint enlargement represents a 3rd avenue for growth, with Jefferies estimating that enhanced big and impermanent services, peculiarly a broader question security offering, could adhd astir 75 ground points to instrumentality complaint by 2030, translating to astir $1.3 cardinal successful further 2030 revenue.

The steadfast did emblem a perchance larger accidental successful sponsored listings, estimating the merchandise could adhd astir 300 ground points to instrumentality complaint wrong 5 years of launching and lend $4.5 cardinal to gross connected 2030 bookings. However, Jefferies moved sponsored listings retired of its basal lawsuit and into an upside scenario, citing Airbnb's evident near-term absorption connected precocious launched products and reduced assurance successful a near-term rollout. The sponsored listings script underpins a $250 upside terms people and a 3.5-to-1 risk-reward.

Jefferies raised its 2027 gross booking worth and EBITDA estimates to 1% and 2% supra consensus, respectively, reflecting assurance successful the durability of maturation arsenic newer products scale.