Bitcoin Falls Harder Than Tech as Nasdaq Link Tightens and Skew Turns Negative

Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index has surged to its highest level successful 3 years. Meanwhile, its nexus to accepted safe-haven assets, specified arsenic gold, has dropped to astir zero.

This important displacement raises questions astir Bitcoin's integer golden communicative arsenic it present acts much similar a high-beta exertion plus than a unchangeable store of value.

In a caller station connected X (formerly Twitter), The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that the cryptocurrency’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index has reached astir 0.80. This was the highest speechmaking since 2022 and the second-strongest level successful the past decade.

Bitcoin's correlation with equities turned affirmative successful 2020. Over the past 5 years, the largest cryptocurrency has mostly moved successful the aforesaid absorption arsenic the tech-heavy index. It lone broke that signifier for abbreviated stretches successful 2023.

This long-running inclination has present pushed Bitcoin’s five-year correlation with the Nasdaq to 0.54. Meanwhile, The Kobeissi Letter noted that Bitcoin shows astir nary statistical narration with assets traditionally viewed arsenic harmless havens, including gold.

"Bitcoin is progressively behaving similar a leveraged tech stock," the station read.

Furthermore, successful its latest report, Wintermute pointed to a much pressing dynamic: the prime of the correlation has shifted. The steadfast explained that portion the directional correlation with the Nasdaq remains elevated, its prime has deteriorated into a bearish skew. This means that,

• When equities fall, BTC falls harder.

• When equities rise, BTC participates weakly.

"Right now, that skew is firmly negative, showing that BTC inactive trades arsenic a high-beta look of hazard sentiment, but lone erstwhile it cuts the incorrect way," the investigation reveals.

Notably, the "pain gap," has surged to levels not seen since precocious 2022. This results successful a structural show disadvantage, wherever Bitcoin underperforms successful risk-on environments—characterized by capitalist optimism—and overreacts successful risk-off scenarios, amplifying downside moves.

Wintermute's Jasper De Maere revealed that 2 forces explicate wherefore this skew is appearing now. First, capitalist mindshare has shifted toward equities, particularly mega-cap tech. It has absorbed astir of the risk-on flows that antecedently rotated into crypto.

"This crowding of mindshare means BTC remains correlated erstwhile planetary hazard sentiment turns, but doesn’t payment proportionally erstwhile optimism returns. It reacts arsenic a 'high-beta tail' of macro hazard alternatively than a standalone narrative, the downside beta remains, the upside communicative premium does not," De Maere stated.