C3.ai Remains Turbulent: Why One Of Wall Street’s Most Outspoken Pros Expects 50% Returns From Here

C3.ai (NYSE:AI) presently trades astatine $10.18, portion Wedbush Securities expert Dan Ives carries a Street-high terms people of $15 connected the endeavor AI bundle company, implying astir 47% upside from here. That header fig sits acold supra the broader Wall Street consensus, which has drifted little aft a brutal fiscal 2026.

C3.ai sells the C3 Agentic AI Platform and industry-specific endeavor AI applications, competing for federal, defense, and concern AI dollars. Founder Thomas Siebel returned arsenic CEO successful June and personally bought 6.17 cardinal shares astatine $11.16, betting his ain superior connected a turnaround.

A Revenue Collapse the Market Refuses to Look Past

Fiscal 2026 gross landed astatine $250.27 million, down 35.67% twelvemonth implicit year, with Q4 showing gross of $51.60 million, a 52.5% year-over-year decline. GAAP gross borderline collapsed from 62% to 22%, and full-year escaped currency travel deteriorated to antagonistic $192.14 million.

Siebel called the caller income show "unspeakably horrible" and said "sales conscionable fell disconnected the cliff" crossed the past 5 quarters. FY2027 gross guidance of $210 cardinal to $240 cardinal implies further shrinkage earlier recovery. Shares are disconnected 45.27% implicit the past twelvemonth and 24.48% twelvemonth to date. Securities people actions emerged aft the Q1 FY2026 disclosure astir Siebel's earlier wellness issues.

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Why Ives and Wedbush Are Still Betting connected a 50% Rebound

Ives maintains an Outperform standing with the $15 target, the Street-high crossed each coverage. His thesis rests connected 3 pillars: C3.ai arsenic an aboriginal endeavor pure-play for national and commercialized generative AI adoption, the displacement toward consumption-based pricing to little deployment friction, and a partner-led question done Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud.

Q3 FY2026 bookings from federal, defense, and aerospace grew 134% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth and reached 55% of full bookings. The associated qualified pipeline with Microsoft grew 146% twelvemonth implicit year, and the AWS associated pipeline grew 172%. That aligns with a Pentagon fund petition calling for $58.5 cardinal for AI successful FY2027.