Can TSM’s Stock Reach $600 By 2028?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM | TSM Price Prediction) conscionable delivered a 4th that should extremity the statement astir who owns the AI buildout. Q1 2026 gross deed $35.9 cardinal with a grounds 66.2% gross margin, and CEO C.C. Wei told investors that "AI-related request continues to beryllium highly robust." HPC unsocial present drives 61% of wafer revenue. Shares are up 26.06% YTD to $402.90. Can TSM deed $600 by 2028?

Why TSM Shares Haven't Broken $500 Yet

TSM is down 0.41% implicit the past week aft climbing 8.74% successful the past period and 108.21% implicit the past year.

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Some DCF models peg just worth astatine $215.69 to $254.08, suggesting shares commercialized 82.4% to 88.4% supra intrinsic value. U.S.-China tensions, Iran warfare disruptions to chemic supplies, and a 2% to 3% gross borderline resistance from the N2 ramp measurement connected sentiment. A beta of 1.264 amplifies moves successful either direction. After a 108% one-year run, profit-taking is rational.

Wall Street Sees 15% Upside. I Think That's Too Conservative

The statement people sits astatine $463.45, with 5 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings. Barclays raised its people to $470 and Needham to $480 aft Q1. Our ain 12-month presumption of $473.33 implies astir 17% upside. Every 1 of these targets is simply a 12-month number.

By 2028, TSM expects to vessel A14 successful volume, propulsion N3 into Arizona and Japan, and capitalize connected what absorption called the "multiyear AI megatrend." Wei's guidance for AI accelerator gross is simply a mid- to high-50s CAGR done 2029. That mathematics doesn't acceptable wrong a $475 target.

The Path to $600 Per Share

Reaching $600 from today's terms of $402.90 would necessitate a summation of 48.9%. With guardant EPS of $15.35, a terms of $600 implies a guardant P/E of 39x. Our basal lawsuit of $473 already implies astir 31x connected existent guardant earnings, meaning the bold people requires astir 8x of further aggregate enlargement oregon equivalent EPS growth.