Challenging Quarter for Robinhood: Will Prediction Markets Be the Next Big Catalyst?

For its Q1 2026 net report, crypto was the large communicative for Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), and not successful a bully way.

Revenue for that concern conception plummeted, which sent the banal terms racing downward.

For shareholders, the bully quality is that Robinhood has different gross maturation accidental up its sleeve. If the absorption squad executes connected capturing a larger stock of the prediction market, it could assistance the Robinhood's banal price regain upward momentum successful the agelong run.

Slumping sales

In Q4 2024, Robinhood reported a monolithic 4th for its crypto segment, with gross of $358 million. For comparison, it was $61 cardinal successful Q3 2024. Since then, however, crypto gross totals person not been anyplace adjacent to that $358 cardinal figure.

The occupation is, the crypto marketplace tin beryllium cyclical, truthful there's not ever a accordant level of investing and trading for Robinhood to make gross from. Even so, the institution is inactive heavy judged connected its crypto revenue.

The banal took a crisp driblet aft the company's caller net announcement, arsenic crypto gross successful Q1 2026 fell 47% to $134 million. That's wherefore the institution needs to grow its different gross streams.

Prediction markets

The prediction markets person seemingly popped retired of nowhere. Monthly trading measurement was little than $100 cardinal a period successful aboriginal 2024 but jumped to much than $13 cardinal a period by the extremity of 2025, according to Forbes. That's lone expected to grow, with an expert astatine Bernstein Research forecasting that the prediction market's trading measurement volition scope $1 trillion a twelvemonth by 2030.

For Robinhood, the prediction market, oregon what it labels arsenic lawsuit contracts successful its net report, is simply a imaginable root of gross growth. For Q1 2026, its different transaction gross segment, which chiefly consists of lawsuit contracts, generated $147 cardinal successful revenue. That was a 320% summation from the aforesaid clip past year. Event contracts traded were besides up 4% 4th implicit quarter.

Offering an aboriginal look for 2026 second-quarter results, gross from Robinhood's prediction markets is expected to beryllium $3 cardinal successful April, apt making it the company's second-biggest period ever for that segment.

What's adjacent for Robinhood?

The markets volition inactive fixate connected Robinhood's crypto gross for a while. It's going to instrumentality a much bullish crypto situation to thrust much enactment and assistance Robinhood turn gross successful that segment.