Moby Intelligence
Mon, May 4, 2026 astatine 11:45 AM CDT 3 min read
Strategic Execution and Operational Drivers
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Performance attribution for the 4th was impacted by terrible wintertime upwind successful January and February, partially offset by a measurement betterment successful March and the seizure of further third-party gas.
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Management is right-sizing superior expenditures, reducing 2026 guidance by one-third to astir $105 cardinal owed to the completion of large infrastructure and upstream efficiencies.
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The displacement by Chevron toward longer laterals is simply a superior operator of superior efficiency, arsenic it reduces the fig of required good connects portion improving good economics.
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Strategic positioning remains anchored by a fixed-fee declaration operation and Minimum Volume Commitments (MVCs) done 2028, providing important downside protection.
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Operational leverage remains precocious with a gross adjusted EBITDA borderline of astir 83%, importantly exceeding the company's 75% semipermanent target.
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The institution successfully utilized its strategy optionality to seizure third-party volumes from different midstream providers facing operational challenges.
Outlook and Strategic Assumptions
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Adjusted escaped currency travel guidance for 2026 was accrued to $910 million–$960 million, a 20% year-over-year summation astatine the midpoint, driven by little CapEx and deferred currency taxes.
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Management expects a second-half EBITDA summation of astir 8% compared to the archetypal half, supported by measurement maturation arsenic caller good completions travel online.
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The institution does not expect to wage worldly currency taxes until aft 2028, pursuing caller IRS guidance regarding the firm alternate minimum tax.
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Strategic readying is aligned with Chevron’s people to support a plateau accumulation level of astir 200,000 barrels of lipid equivalent per time successful the Bakken.
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Second 4th volumes are expected to beryllium impacted by planned attraction astatine the Tioga Gas Plant, estimated to trim throughput by 5 cardinal to 10 cardinal cubic feet per day.
Capital Allocation and Risk Factors
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Completed a $60 cardinal stock and portion repurchase successful March, starring to a organisation level summation to support full distributed currency connected a little stock count.
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The institution is targeting a semipermanent leverage scope of astir 2.5x to 3.0x debt-to-EBITDA by 2028 done earthy EBITDA maturation and indebtedness repayment.
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Contractual protections and governance guardrails, including autarkic manager support requirements, forestall unilateral declaration changes by the sponsor.
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The barroom for inorganic M&A remains precocious arsenic absorption prioritizes the existing high-yield concern exemplary and integrated escaped currency travel generation.

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