I Keep Buying Nvidia Because Bears Keep Shouting This False Narrative

4 weeks ago 9

Alex Sirois

Sat, July 18, 2026 astatine 8:10 AM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

NVDA shipped zero H20 chips to China yet inactive posted $81.6B successful Q1 revenue, up 85%, and guided Q2 to $91 billion.
NVDA's guardant P/E of 23 makes it cheaper than AMD astatine 76 oregon INTC astatine 118, portion delivering 101% instrumentality connected equity.
Jensen Huang cited $1 trillion successful Blackwell and Rubin gross visibility done 2027, backed by OpenAI's 10-gigawatt NVDA systems commitment.
Don't wait: the expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable revealed his apical 10 AI stocks. See the afloat database FREE now.

I support buying NVIDIA due to the fact that each bearish statement I perceive collapses the infinitesimal I unfastened the net report. The fashionable one, that NVIDIA is either hoarding currency oregon bleeding retired from China restrictions, is the loudest and the wrongest, and it keeps handing maine chances to adhd to a presumption I program to clasp heavy into retirement.

A person's 2 unfastened hands are presented successful the foreground, each holding an ethereal animal. On the left, a acheronian bull, glowing with aureate energy, charges forward. On the right, a acheronian bear, emitting bluish light, lumbers ahead. Both figures are overlaid with integer banal marketplace candlestick charts successful teal and red. In the blurred background, a idiosyncratic successful a concern suit is visible, observing the scene, suggesting a fiscal context.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades contiguous astatine $207.40, and the expert people sits astatine $301.62. My condemnation comes from the numbers underneath that gap.

The China Narrative Bears Cannot Let Go Of

In Q1 FY2027, NVIDIA shipped zero H20 compute products to China, down from $4.6 cardinal a twelvemonth earlier. Revenue inactive came successful astatine $81.615 billion, up 85.23% twelvemonth implicit year, beating estimates by 3.16%. Data Center gross unsocial was $75.246 billion, up 92%. Networking, the portion astir radical ignore, deed $14.800 billion, up 199%. Management past guided Q2 to $91.0 billion, again assuming nary China Data Center compute revenue. A institution that tin sorb a multi-billion-dollar lawsuit nonaccomplishment and inactive people those numbers does not person a request problem.

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The Cash Hoarding Claim Falls Apart

NVIDIA returned astir $20.0 cardinal to shareholders successful a azygous 4th done repurchases and dividends. The committee added $80.0 cardinal successful caller buyback authorization connected May 18, 2026, connected apical of $38.5 cardinal already remaining nether the anterior plan. Management told analysts they program to instrumentality astir 50% of escaped currency travel to shareholders successful 2027. The quarterly dividend was raised from $0.01 to $0.25. FY2026 returns totaled $41.1 billion. This is not a institution sitting connected its wallet.

Why NVIDIA And Not The Obvious Alternatives

The ratio numbers explicate wherefore I privation NVIDIA reinvesting archetypal and returning second. ROIC of 92.2%. Return connected equity of 101.5%. Operating borderline of 60.4%. Non-GAAP gross borderline of 75.0%. Debt-to-equity of 0.073 and involvement sum supra 500x. Free currency travel of $48.554 cardinal successful 1 quarter.

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