Is Crypto in a Bear Market Now? A Full Market Structure Assessment

2 weeks ago 10

Mohammad Shahid

Sat, November 15, 2025 astatine 3:10 PM CST 4 min read

hyperliquid trader, hyperliquid loss, abbreviated bitcoin, abbreviated ethereum, qwatio. Photo by BeInCrypto

Bitcoin has dropped beneath $100,000 for the 2nd clip successful a week, losing 12% successful a month. The wide crypto marketplace has mislaid implicit $700 cardinal successful the past month, arsenic the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to ‘extreme fear’.

So, bash each of these marketplace indicators awesome a carnivore market? Let’s analyse the method and humanities data.

The Fear & Greed Index astatine 10 reflects utmost fearfulness comparable to aboriginal 2022 and June 2022, some confirmed bear-market phases.

Yesterday: 16
Last week: 20
Last month: 28

The inclination shows accelerating fear, not stabilizing sentiment. Bear runs usually statesman with this benignant of persistent fearfulness compression.

However, sentiment unsocial does not corroborate a carnivore marketplace — it lone signals capitulation oregon exhaustion.

The 365-day moving mean is the semipermanent structural pivot.

Current situation:

The 365-day MA is adjacent $102,000.
Bitcoin is trading beneath it.
The breakdown mirrors December 2021, erstwhile terms mislaid the aforesaid MA and the carnivore marketplace started.

Historically:

Cycle	MA Lost?	Outcome
2018	Yes	Full carnivore market
2021	Yes	Full carnivore market
2025	Yes (now)	Bear-phase hazard rising

Failing to reclaim this level rapidly often confirms a rhythm authorities shift. This is 1 of the strongest method arguments for a bear-market transition.

The 6–12 period UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized terms present sits astir $94,600. Bitcoin terms presently stands somewhat supra this level.

This matters because:

These holders bought during the ETF rally.
They correspond “bull-cycle condemnation buyers.”
When their presumption enters loss, marketplace operation weakens.

In 2021, Bitcoin terms falling beneath this cohort’s outgo ground was 1 of the last signals earlier the extended downtrend. This is the archetypal clip that cost-basis accent has reappeared since 2022.

This supports the thought of a mid-cycle break, not yet a afloat macro carnivore trend.

Market-wide RSI readings: