JPMorgan increases guidance on power-capacity valuation, upgrades CIFR and CLSK to overweight

JPMorgan has upgraded Bitcoin miners Cipher Mining (Nasdaq: CIFR) and CleanSpark (Nasdaq: CLSK) to Overweight successful its sum citing a emergence successful high-performance computing agreements that accrued assurance successful miners’ colocation strategies, according to a caller study published Monday.

The steadfast present values a megawatt of captious IT colocation capableness betwixt $8 cardinal to $17 million, up from $4 cardinal to $9 million. Similarly, a megawatt of captious IT unreality capableness could beryllium worthy arsenic overmuch arsenic $19 million, compared with $12 cardinal previously.

Cipher received a caller December 2026 terms people of $18, up from $12. CleanSpark’s December 2026 people was kept astatine $14. JPMorgan attributed the upgrades to precocious announced hosting agreements and projected conversions of approved powerfulness capableness to HPC use. The slope cited much than 600 MW of gross contracted HPC capableness betwixt caller deals by Cipher and IREN.

The study stated that Cipher could scope astir 480 MW of captious IT capableness by 2026, reflecting 64 percent of its approved powerfulness portfolio. CleanSpark’s outlook incorporated assumptions for a colocation declaration astatine its 285 MW tract successful Texas by precocious 2026. JPMorgan assigned a blended valuation of $14 cardinal per MW for Cipher and $13 cardinal per MW for CleanSpark erstwhile calculating the updated targets.

The slope raised IREN’s (Nasdaq: IREN) terms people to $39 from $28 and kept the banal astatine Underweight. IREN’s people was based connected a captious IT valuation of $17 cardinal per MW and an assumed 660 MW of HPC load by 2026. JPMorgan lowered Riot Platforms’ (Nasdaq: RIOT) people to $17 from $19 and MARA Holdings’ (Nasdaq: MARA) people to $13 from $20 aft updating bitcoin price, web hashrate and share-count assumptions.

JPMorgan’s diluted share-count estimates are connected mean 20 percent to 33 percent higher than the figures listed successful Bloomberg for the miners it covers. The study cited at-the-market issuance programs, convertible-note dilution and enactment exercises arsenic factors contributing to the difference.

Cipher’s diluted stock number was revised to 480 million. CleanSpark’s estimation roseate to 334 million. The slope besides reported that combined diluted marketplace capitalizations for Cipher, CleanSpark, IREN, Riot and MARA were astir $8 cardinal higher than indicated erstwhile utilizing Bloomberg share-count data.

Bitcoin’s diminution of astir 17 percent since the bank’s anterior update led JPMorgan to revise its mining-related assumptions. It updated its baseline web hashrate to 1,080 EH/s and regular gross per EH/s to $39,600. Mining businesses were valued utilizing a scope of $1 cardinal to $2 cardinal per MW based connected outgo structures and expected post-halving margins.