LMI: Freight recovery in ‘full-swing’

A monthly study compiling sentiment among proviso concatenation managers said February provided much grounds “that the long-awaited freight marketplace comeback is successful full-swing.”

The Logistics Managers’ Index—a diffusion scale successful which a speechmaking supra 50 indicates enlargement portion 1 beneath 50 signals contraction—returned a speechmaking of 41 for proscription capableness successful February. That was 6 percent points little than January and connected par with November 2021—”the tallness of the covid shipping boom.”

The compression connected capableness was wide but particularly pronounced astatine ample companies (1,000 employees oregon more), which reported a contraction complaint of 32.6.

Severe wintertime storms successful December and January temporarily reduced disposable capacity. However, carriers and 3PLs proceed to constituent to heightened regulatory enforcement arsenic the driving unit down the marketplace tightening.

“The request is intelligibly determination though,” the Tuesday study said. “FreightWaves’ flatbed tender rejection complaint exceeded 32% for the 2nd clip successful its eight-year history.” (The dataset presently stands astatine 46%.)

The study said this is apt an indicator of accrued upstream enactment astatine the manufacturing level of the proviso chain.

FreightWaves’ adust van information shows meaningful capableness tightening arsenic well, holding elevated readings done the seasonally weakest portion of the year.

Transportation utilization (61.9) accrued 3.8 points successful February to the highest speechmaking since May 2022, and “a acold outcry from September 2025 erstwhile this metric was breaking adjacent astatine 50.0.”

Transportation prices (76.7) accrued 5.2 points to a level not seen successful 4 years. Pricing sentiment among upstream firms (79.7) came successful much than 11 points higher than indications from downstream retailers.

“It is unclear however changes successful tariff argumentation oregon the imaginable for enlargement successful planetary conflicts could interaction things,” the study said. “For this infinitesimal however, the precocious rates of turnover pushed partially by tariffs person led to the astir robust freight marketplace successful 4 years.”

Looking ahead, logistics managers expect these conditions to persist and adjacent intensify. Transportation prices are expected to importantly grow implicit the adjacent 12 months, with respondents returning a forecast speechmaking of 80.3, a level that would beryllium the fastest complaint of enlargement since the marketplace highest of March 2022. Transportation capableness is expected to stay successful contraction astatine 44.9.

“If these predictions clasp it would people a existent displacement backmost towards a booming proscription market.”

The wide LMI stood astatine 61.5 successful February, up 1.9 points from January. This marked the highest speechmaking successful a twelvemonth and the third-highest successful the past 4 years.