MicroStrategy Is Down 56.9% YTD, Yet Still Buying Bitcoin by the Billions

1 hour ago 1

David Beren

Tue, March 24, 2026 astatine 8:58 AM CDT 4 min read

A fashionable Reddit investment, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has mislaid 56.9% of its value, precocious trading adjacent $138, yet continues to bargain bitcoin astatine a gait that has made it the largest U.S. equity issuer for 2 consecutive years. Reddit's composite sentiment people sits astatine 28 retired of 100, firmly bearish, with statement concentrated successful derivatives communities. The cardinal question: tin the company's "BTC Yield" metric, which measures bitcoin per-diluted-share growth, outpace the dilution required to make it?

Strategy's FY2025 BTC Yield came successful astatine 22.8%, meaning each stock represents much bitcoin than a twelvemonth ago, however, the company's ain people was 30%. More importantly, the steadfast raised $25.3 cardinal successful superior during 2025 and present holds 713,502 BTC. The cost: a 52.6% enlargement successful stock number successful 2025 alone, from astir 192.5 cardinal to astir 294 cardinal shares, each portion Q4 produced a $12.44 cardinal nett nonaccomplishment driven by a $17.44 cardinal unrealized nonaccomplishment connected integer assets arsenic bitcoin prices fell precocious successful the year.

All 3 Reddit sentiment information points captured implicit the past 72 hours amusement bearish scores betwixt 28 and 30, with 100% of qualified mentions originating successful r/options alternatively than semipermanent investing forums. Peak enactment deed Monday evening astatine 9 PM ET, generating 60 comments successful a azygous hour. One r/options thread titled "2026 leaps" had users listing Strategy puts connected their watchlist. One commenter wrote: "MSTR $120 Dec 26 PUT... these are connected my watchlist."

An infographic titled 'MicroStrategy (MSTR): The Bitcoin Treasury Paradox'. Section 1, 'WHAT THE INVESTMENT IS', describes MicroStrategy arsenic a Bitcoin Treasury Company. It lists slug points: 'Holds 713,502 BTC (as of Feb 1, 2026)', 'Market Cap: $44.3B', 'BTC Yield FY2025: 22.8% (Target: 30%)', and 'Current Price: ~$138 (down 54.5% YTD)'. Section 2, 'THE SOCIAL SENTIMENT SCORE', features a gauge with a needle pointing to 28 retired of 100, labeled 'BEARISH' beneath it, with 'Source: Reddit Social Sentiment'. Section 3, 'WHAT IS DRIVING THAT SCORE TODAY', presents 3 rectangular boxes. The first, 'FINANCIAL LOSSES', has a downward arrow icon and states 'Q4 2025 Net Loss: $12.4B' and 'Driven by $17.44B Unrealized BTC Loss'. The second, 'MOUNTING DILUTION', has an icon of expanding squares and states '52.6% Share Count Expansion successful 2025' and 'To Raise $25.3B Capital'. The third, 'REDDIT ACTIVITY', has Reddit and percent icons and states '100% of Recent Bearish Mentions successful r/options' and 'Focus connected Puts and Derivatives'.

This infographic details MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Bitcoin holdings and fiscal performance, alongside a bearish Reddit societal sentiment people driven by caller losses, stock dilution, and derivatives activity.

2026 leaps
by u/deleted successful r/options

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The bearish lawsuit rests connected 3 concerns:

Authorized shares raised to 10.33 cardinal Class A shares, giving absorption near-unlimited capableness to dilute communal holders.
Perpetual preferred obligations fertile supra communal equity, and the STRC preferred has grown to $3.4 billion, with its adaptable complaint present astatine 11.25%, up from 9% earlier successful the year. Each summation raises the hurdle BTC Yield indispensable wide to payment communal shareholders.
Bitcoin is down 19.7% year-to-date to adjacent $70,218, portion Polymarket traders delegate lone a 30% probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, the threshold Strategy needs for its leveraged exemplary to make meaningful gains.

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