Middle East crisis: fertiliser trade “severely disrupted”, WTO says

The struggle successful the Middle East has "severely disrupted" planetary fertiliser trade, heightening risks for wider nutrient security, a World Trade Organization study has said.

The WTO said respective economies successful Africa and Asia are "particularly vulnerable" to fertiliser shortages and rising prices linked to the crisis.

It warned weaker fertiliser availability could wounded harvest production, creating "potential knock-on effects" for nutrient prices and planetary nutrient security.

According to the report, fertiliser-related outbound shipments done the Strait of Hormuz to destinations beyond the Persian Gulf fell to a "standstill" aft the struggle began and person stayed "close to zero" ever since.

Prices surged sharply successful the contiguous aftermath. Urea, which had traded astatine astir $400 per metric tonne (mt), climbed to much than $850/mt successful April earlier retreating to $453/mt successful June.

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) besides rose, moving from astir $580/mt to astir $770/mt.

The levels stay beneath the peaks seen successful 2022 aft the Ukraine warfare began, erstwhile urea concisely topped $900/mt, DAP neared $960/mt and potash exceeded $1,200/mt.

The study said planetary fertiliser exports are "highly concentrated" among a constricted fig of suppliers.

Gulf economies relationship for 24.8% of worldwide nitrogenous fertiliser exports and 11.4% of phosphatic fertiliser exports, though they play astir nary relation successful potash.

Asia receives 40% of nitrogenous fertiliser exports from the Gulf, portion 48% of the region's phosphatic shipments spell there. Russia, China and Morocco were besides identified arsenic "major suppliers".

India was among the countries "particularly exposed", sourcing astir two-thirds of its nitrogenous fertiliser imports from the Gulf region, portion Thailand gets adjacent to fractional from the aforesaid area, the WTO said.

Australia, Brazil, Morocco and the US were besides listed arsenic large destinations.

The bureau identified 18 economies, including Kenya, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Sri Lanka, arsenic particularly susceptible to disruptions successful nitrogenous fertiliser supplies from the Gulf.

The study besides said export licences, restrictions and bans imposed aft the closure of the Strait of Hormuz person further tightened supply.

Such measures whitethorn impact up to 15% of satellite fertiliser exports, rising to 23.3% if the closure is treated arsenic efficaciously restricting each Gulf fertiliser shipments, the WTO said.

Still, the WTO believes the existent export diminution is "likely to beryllium lower". Export licensing requirements, it said, bash not magnitude to a implicit export ban.