Morning Minute: Crypto Rips on Cool CPI

Morning Minute is simply a regular newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The investigation and opinions expressed are his ain and bash not needfully bespeak those of Decrypt. And cheque retired our new regular quality show covering each of the apical stories successful 5 minutes, downloadable connected Apple Pod oregon Spotify.

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Today's apical news:

• Crypto majors are up 3-6% aft a acold CPI print; BTC astatine $64.6k

• HYPE jumps 7% to $68 arsenic SEC Crypto Task Force meets with HPC squad

• Mizuho downgrades Circle to $50 target, cites OpenUSD contention

• Pump.fun hits archetypal large unlock arsenic $86M successful PUMP hits marketplace (PUMP +15%)

• Robinhood Chain sees large rotation from memes to protocols

📈 Crypto Rips connected Cool CPI, but Warsh Won't Call It a Win

The brushed ostentation people crypto was waiting for yet landed.

June CPI fell 0.4% period implicit month, the biggest monthly diminution since April 2020, dropping the yearly complaint to 3.5% from May's 4.2% and coming successful nether the 3.8% expected. Core CPI cooled to 2.6%, beneath forecasts, and was level connected the month.

Crypto squeezed higher wrong minutes. Bitcoin jumped from astir $62,000 to reclaim $64,900, ETH surged 7% to $1,884, and astir $300 cardinal successful abbreviated positions were liquidated arsenic bears got tally over.

Bitcoin Ticks Up to $64K Following Largest Inflation Slowdown successful Six Years

Notably, this was the past large ostentation work earlier the Fed's July 28-29 meeting, and it undercuts the rate-hike lawsuit that's been capping the marketplace each summer. The likelihood of a July complaint chopped fell from 35% connected Polymarket to conscionable 6% successful the aftermath of CPI + Warsh's commentary. Though likelihood of astatine slightest 1 hike are inactive ~80% by extremity of twelvemonth (down from 90%).

Within hours of the CPI print, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified to Congress, his archetypal quality since taking implicit from Powell. The large takeaway from his grounds was his remark that if the Fed gets argumentation right, the ostentation surge of the past 5 years "will beryllium a happening of the past." He leaned hard into the AI communicative too, calling concern business the astir striking diagnostic of the system and predicting that what's present called "AI investment" volition soon conscionable beryllium called "investment," a presumption that AI is fundamentally disinflationary.

That said, erstwhile asked straight astir the morning's CPI data, helium pushed backmost connected the optimism, saying immoderate mightiness look astatine it and state "mission accomplished," and past adding flatly, "that is not my view." He gave nary guardant guidance, nary awesome connected the adjacent move, and reminded lawmakers the committee has "no tolerance" for elevated inflation. Some (myself included) whitethorn construe that arsenic a spot hawkish, and it does inactive consciousness similar a complaint hike whitethorn precise good travel successful 2026.