Musk given only a one-in-three chance of beating Altman as trial gets under way

Proactive

Wed, April 29, 2026 astatine 5:12 AM CDT 2 min read

Prediction markets are pricing Elon Musk's likelihood of winning his suit against Sam Altman and OpenAI astatine conscionable 35%, down sharply from earlier successful the year, arsenic the 2 men came look to look successful a California courtroom yesterday for 1 of the astir consequential ineligible battles successful exertion history.

Musk is seeking $130 cardinal successful damages and wants OpenAI to instrumentality to a nonprofit operation with some Altman and president Greg Brockman removed from its board.

His cardinal assertion is that Altman steered OpenAI distant from its founding ngo arsenic a nonprofit designed to make precocious AI for the payment of humanity, escaped of nett motives.

Musk took the witnesser basal connected Tuesday astatine the national tribunal successful Oakland, California, becoming the archetypal witnesser called successful the case.

His lawyer told the assemblage that the defendants had "stolen a charity", arguing that Musk poured astir $38 cardinal into OpenAI implicit 5 years earlier a bitter divided successful 2018.

OpenAI created a for-profit subsidiary a twelvemonth aft Musk's exit and, successful 2025, converted into a afloat for-profit nationalist payment corporation.

OpenAI's defence was blunt: "We are present due to the fact that Mr Musk didn't get his way. He quit, saying they would neglect for sure. But my clients had the nervus to spell connected and win without him."

Microsoft, named arsenic a co-defendant, is accused of enabling OpenAI's alleged breach of charitable spot done its investments and partnerships with the company's for-profit arm.

The Polymarket illustration shows likelihood peaked concisely supra 50% earlier collapsing toward 30% successful March, with a humble betterment since. The marketplace resolves connected 31 December 2026.

The stakes widen good beyond the courtroom. OpenAI's IPO is expected to beryllium a blockbuster, and a Musk triumph could acceptable backmost a large rival portion propelling his ain AI company, xAI, up successful the race.