NIKE, Inc. (NKE): A Bull Case Theory

Nike (NKE) is wide regarded arsenic the astir iconic apparel and footwear marque globally, commanding ascendant marketplace positions crossed hoops and running, with 85% stock successful hoops footwear and 65% of NBA players wearing its products. The brand’s aspirational power, fueled by jock endorsements and iconic designs similar the Air Jordan, Air Force 1, and Dunk, has created a flywheel of taste relevance and sales.

However, strategical missteps nether erstwhile CEO John Donahue, including overreliance connected integer direct-to-consumer channels, neglect of wholesale partners, merchandise concentration, and over-inventory, combined with macro headwinds successful China and tariffs, led to a crisp 70% diminution successful shares, marking a trough successful show by precocious 2024.

Under CEO Elliott Hill, Nike is executing a “Win Now” turnaround, refocusing connected athletics astatine the center of its culture, reorganizing teams by sport, rightsizing cardinal franchises, and innovating merchandise portfolios with athlete-driven insights. The institution is rebalancing its wholesale and integer channels, restoring bold selling campaigns, and embedding community-level engagement to reenforce marque loyalty. Early signs of betterment are evident: wholesale gross is trending backmost to 60%, moving conception maturation deed 20% successful Q1 2026, and inventory has begun to normalize.

Nike’s Q4 2025 trough sets up casual comparisons, and the caller merchandise rhythm could make $4 EPS successful FY28, implying a 15x aggregate contiguous and 61% upside to $100 per share, with a much blimpish script pointing to $80 per share. Even utilizing discounted currency travel investigation with normalized growth, just worth ranges astir $82, offering 31% upside.

Key catalysts see caller merchandise success, wholesale support reclamation, China gross recovery, and borderline improvement. With beardown fundamentals, a durable moat, and constricted downside, Nike presents a compelling semipermanent concern opportunity, blending growth, scale, and taste dominance.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on NIKE, Inc. (NKE) by Any_Chocolate6194 successful May 2025, which highlighted Nike’s taste integration, Elliott Hill’s enactment return, and betterment imaginable amid subdued marketplace sentiment. NKE’s banal has appreciated by astir 3.7% since then. Valuations’s Substack shares a akin thesis but emphasizes the “Win Now” turnaround, merchandise rhythm catalysts, and elaborate upside to $100 per share.