Pokémon Cards Beat the S&P 500 by 2.5x, But the Math Is a Lie

4 hours ago 3

Michael Williams

Sat, July 18, 2026 astatine 4:45 PM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

Pokémon cards claimed a 3,261% instrumentality versus the S&P 500's 421%, but SPY has really delivered 510% implicit the aforesaid model with existent dividends and liquidity.
Collectibles indexes way lone graded, top-condition header cards, which is precise antithetic from the random $10 battalion successful your closet that has nary changeable astatine those returns.
Hanson calls it a mathematics crime: comparing a survivor-biased collectibles mean to a wide scale portion ignoring that Amazon, NVIDIA, and Tesla individually crush those paper returns.
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A clip making the rounds connected societal media pitched collectibles arsenic a smarter stake than the banal market. The numbers looked compelling connected their face. On The Money Guy Show conception "Financial Advisors React to Jaw Dropping Money Clips," co-host Bo Hanson took the numbers isolated and explained wherefore the examination falls isolated nether scrutiny.

A dynamic divided representation showing a diagonal reddish enactment separating 2 concern symbols. On the left, the ample achromatic substance 'SCHX' with a reddish glow is overlaid connected a blurred bluish fiscal graph with greenish lines and barroom charts. On the right, 'VOO' successful akin glowing achromatic substance is placed supra stacks of metallic coins, with a tiny greenish histrion increasing from the tallest stack, against a bright, blurred background. A salient achromatic ellipse with 'VS' successful reddish is centered wherever the 2 halves meet.

The Viral Claim

The clip asserted that Pokémon cards person generated a 20-year mean instrumentality of 21.8% per year, totaling 3,261%, versus the S&P 500's 421% summation (8.79% annually). The presenter framed it arsenic "2.5 times amended than the S&P 500."

Set alongside the existent index, the equity benchmark's long-run grounds is inactive substantial. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) has climbed 509.56% implicit the astir two-decade model from July 17, 2006 done July 14, 2026, with the ETF past printing $751.97. The 10-year fig unsocial is 248.34%. Real numbers, existent liquidity, existent dividends.

Bo Hanson's "Math Crime"

Hanson called the examination a "math crime." His halfway objection: the clip is stacking an aggregated collectibles fig against a diversified equity index. As helium enactment it, "He is taking... the mean crossed each American shot cards... and comparing that to a handbasket of goods successful the S&P 500."

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Flip the workout astir and pit the collectibles mean against idiosyncratic equity winners, and the communicative changes. Hanson noted that names similar Amazon, NVIDIA, and Tesla would "smoke the numbers here" implicit the aforesaid period. The collectibles transportation softly compares a survivor-biased mean of apical cards against a wide scale of 500 companies. Apples versus effect salad.

The Pack Problem

The 2nd furniture of the flaw is the presumption that immoderate fixed purchaser really captures the aggregate return. Hanson's constituent was direct: buying a $10 battalion of Pokémon cards and holding it for 20 years does not mean you "got truthful fortunate that 1 of the cards successful your battalion was truthful invaluable that you admit a 3,000% complaint of return." Aggregate collectibles indexes are constructed from graded, high-condition, headline-grabbing cards. The battalion successful your closet is astir surely not successful that dataset.

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