Project ramp-ups and capacity expansions to increase Australian coal output in 2026

Australia’s ember mining manufacture remains a captious pillar of the nationalist economy, with thermal ember accounting for much than 60% of full output and metallurgical ember comprising the remainder.

Total ember accumulation is estimated to person remained broadly level successful 2025 astatine 65.3 cardinal tonnes (mt), reflecting lone marginal maturation implicit 2024. This stableness was underpinned by the continued ramp-up of the Olive Downs Complex, which commenced operations successful June 2023, alongside planned accumulation increases astatine the Saraji, Maules Creek, and Burton mines, and improved stripping ratios and operational ratio astatine the Hunter Valley and Dawson mines.

These gains were mostly offset by little output from the Ulan ember underground excavation owed to operational constraints and a impermanent suspension of operations astatine the Moranbah North mine, pursuing a occurrence successful March 2025.

In 2026, ember accumulation is forecast to summation by 3.9% to 483.2mt, driven chiefly by a bid of operational developments. Key contributors see the continued ramp-up of the Maxwell underground project, planned expanding capableness astatine the Byerwen and the Narrabri underground mines, and higher output from the New Acland excavation pursuing the receipt of excavation beingness extensions.

Production is besides expected to retrieve astatine the Ulan excavation arsenic operations normalise pursuing the solution of prior-year constraints. These gains volition beryllium partially offset by little contributions from mature mines specified arsenic the Wilpinjong and Springvale, and the closure of Glencore’s Integra excavation successful 2025.

Over the forecast play (2026-2035), Australia’s ember accumulation is projected to participate a structural decline. Output is expected to declaration astatine a antagonistic CAGR of 0.8%, falling to 448.7mt by 2035. This subdued trajectory reflects a operation of semipermanent supply-side and demand-side pressures, including the scheduled closure of respective cardinal mines specified arsenic the Griffin ember excavation (2026), Clermont ember mine, Springvale excavation and Cook Colliery (2028), and the Chain Valley Colliery and Oaky Creek excavation (2029), which collectively produced 132.1mt of ember successful 2024.

The accumulation outlook volition beryllium further constrained by weakening planetary request for thermal coal, arsenic renewable vigor and earthy state progressively displace coal-fired powerfulness procreation successful large consuming markets, including the US and China. This request erosion is expected to accelerate the diminution successful output triggered by excavation closures and bounds incentives for large-scale caller capableness additions.

From a regulatory perspective, Australia’s mining assemblage is undergoing a worldly translation amid rising biology and sustainability pressures and a strategical displacement toward captious minerals. The instauration of stricter biology regulations, including the Environment Protection Reform Act 2025, is expanding support scrutiny, compliance costs, and task improvement timelines, peculiarly for ember mining projects. While clearer regulatory frameworks are intended to heighten transparency and semipermanent concern certainty, they are besides expected to enactment arsenic a near-term headwind to ember assemblage expansion.