Reddit Fell in Love With Nebius Then Panic Sold the Wrong Miss

• Nebius (NBIS) secured a $19.4B Microsoft woody and $3B Meta deal, with $20B+ backlog and $7-9B gross people by extremity 2026. Amazon (AMZN) AWS grew 24% YoY; Google (GOOGL) Cloud grew 48% YoY with $70B+ tally rate.

• Capacity constraints astatine hyperscalers similar Amazon and Google are driving customers to Nebius, but the institution faces execution hazard gathering retired infrastructure accelerated capable to cod connected its contracts.

• The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 AI stocks. Get them present FREE.

Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) is up 10.5% year-to-date, trading astir $93 Monday morning, each portion Reddit sentiment has climbed from a bearish 35 successful mid-February to a bullish 72 today, driven by a declaration backlog that would marque astir AI startups dizzy. The question retail investors support circling backmost to: tin Nebius really physique accelerated capable to cod connected them?

The declaration wins are real. Nebius has secured a multi-year woody with Microsoft worthy up to $19.4 cardinal and a $3 cardinal infrastructure statement with Meta, with a confirmed backlog exceeding $20 billion. The AI Cloud conception grew by much than 400% year-over-year successful Q3 2025, reaching sold-out capacity. Management is targeting $7 cardinal to $9 cardinal successful annualized run-rate gross by extremity of 2026, up from $551 cardinal astatine year-end 2025. That is simply a astir 6x leap successful 12 months, contingent wholly connected execution.

Retail enthusiasm peaked astatine 95 connected February 11-12, the time earlier earnings. Then you person Q4 gross of $227.7 million, which missed the $244 cardinal statement estimation by astir 7%, and sentiment dropped to 35 by February 15. The miss was supply-driven, not demand-driven. Capacity was sold out. That favoritism matters, but it did not halt the selloff.

READ: The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 just named his apical 10 AI stocks

The bull lawsuit connected r/wallstreetbets was captured successful a pre-earnings station that garnered 280 upvotes:

NBIS afloat larboard leaps

NBIS afloat larboard leaps
by u/Charming-Priority859 successful wallstreetbets

"This is the astir asymmetrical AI play connected the marketplace rn," wrote Charming-Priority859, pointing to Nebius's vertical integration and the information that "the halfway concern is little than the $19B woody with Microsoft and $3B woody with Meta combined."

Bears are not arguing demand, and they are arguing astir superior structure. Nebius spent $2.06 cardinal connected capex successful Q4 unsocial and is readying $16 cardinal to $20 cardinal successful full capex for 2026 crossed 9 caller information halfway sites. Free currency travel was antagonistic $1.23 cardinal successful Q4, and full liabilities person grown to $7.84 billion. An ATM equity programme authorizing up to 25 cardinal caller shares adds dilution hazard connected apical of the indebtedness load.