Robinhood's stock pops as analyst predicts World Cup will boost prediction markets revenue

What happened: Robinhood's (HOOD) banal roseate arsenic overmuch arsenic 7% connected Monday.

What's down the move: A Bernstein expert laid retired the lawsuit for wherefore the World Cup could beryllium peculiarly lucrative for the trading app successful a probe note.

"We expect prediction markets to beryllium [Robinhood's] largest incremental gross operator for 2026," Bernstein expert Guatam Chhugani wrote.

Based connected measurement traded successful 2025 — $12 cardinal — and truthful acold successful 2026 — $16 cardinal —Bernstein estimates Robinhood could spot a imaginable 286% leap successful gross from prediction markets for this twelvemonth to $586 million.  

"We judge arsenic we caput deeper into the World Cup, we tin expect Robinhood to summation share," Chhugani added, pointing to Polymarket information indicating US Midterm elections and the lawsuit of Wall Street's increasing organization involvement successful prediction markets arsenic different affirmative drivers. 

What other you request to know: Predictions marketplace measurement is signaling grounds involvement successful the opening days of the World Cup.

Volume astatine manufacture person Kalshi climbed to a grounds play precocious of $4.5 cardinal successful the archetypal week of June, according to Bernstein. Meanwhile, betting connected Polymarket for who wins the World Cup boasted astir doubly arsenic overmuch trading volume— $2 billion— arsenic the adjacent astir fashionable contract.

For Robinhood (HOOD), the timing appears lucrative. The institution precocious rolled retired its ain prediction marketplace level called Rothera, aft relying connected a concern with Kalshi since precocious 2024. The caller level is looking to vie connected little outgo fees, according to Bernstein, which notes it caps committee astatine $0.01 per declaration portion besides giving its Gold customers different 50% simplification successful committee fees.

Robinhood's banal is down 15% since the opening of January. The bulk of that merchantability disconnected came successful precocious April erstwhile the institution missed archetypal 4th gross estimates from analysts, mostly owed to a slump successful crypto trading enactment compared to the twelvemonth prior.

David Hollerith is simply a elder newsman astatine Yahoo Finance covering the cryptocurrency and banal markets. Follow him connected X at @DsHollers.

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