Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push

Robinhood whitethorn beryllium making a propulsion towards launching its ain dedicated prediction marketplace platform, acquiring a 90% involvement successful derivatives speech LedgerX, which was antecedently owned by the now-defunct FTX.

In response, the shares of HOOD person climbed much than 8% to $125 since Wednesday’s marketplace open, according to Yahoo Finance.

“Robinhood is seeing beardown lawsuit request for prediction markets, and we’re excited to physique connected that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and wide manager of futures and planetary astatine Robinhood, successful a statement. “Our concern successful infrastructure volition presumption america to present an adjacent amended acquisition and much innovative products for customers.”

The fashionable trading app partnered with prediction marketplace Kalshi successful the summertime to commencement offering what it brands arsenic “event contracts,” which its CEO Vlad Tenev said were “really connected fire” successful a recent net call.

However, probe steadfast Bernstein believes the acquisition of LedgerX, which does concern nether the sanction MIAX, is simply a determination by Robinhood to motorboat its ain lawsuit contracts alongside the Kalshi-powered offerings.

“With HOOD already accounting for much than 50% of Kalshi marketplace volumes, we believe, HOOD wants to leverage its organisation borderline to assertion a higher stock of the marketplace gross pool,” Bernstein analysts said successful a enactment shared with Decrypt.

“By adding its ain prediction markets liquidity, HOOD tin innovate further connected merchandise premix starring to much gross upside from some increasing volumes and take-rate,” the analysts added. “We judge HOOD volition proceed distributing Kalshi products, but volition supplement much lawsuit contracts directly.”

Robinhood, successful concern with Susquehanna International Group, acquired its 90% involvement from Miami International Holdings for an undisclosed fee. Miami International Holdings volition clasp the remaining 10% of equity. The transaction is expected to adjacent successful the archetypal 4th of 2026. 

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MIAX has regulatory support from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to database and wide afloat collateralized futures and options connected futures and swaps. The steadfast hopes the acquisition volition spot it propulsion into the satellite of prediction markets.

“The transaction announced contiguous volition supply MIAX with entree to the increasing prediction markets connected an expedited basis," Thomas P. Gallagher, president and CEO of MIAX, said successful a precocious Wednesday release. "We person evaluated alternatives to facilitate our introduction to the prediction markets, and we judge that today's strategical alignment is the close lever for offering organization and retail futures traders vulnerability successful the increasing prediction markets portion providing MIAX with imaginable semipermanent value."

HOOD banal has risen much than 8% to $125 pursuing the announcement, arsenic it inches person to its all-time precocious of $153 acceptable successful September arsenic Robinhood looked to expand its prediction marketplace offerings extracurricular of the U.S.