Russia’s war against Ukraine enters fifth year as experts outline 3 possible outcomes

Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the warfare successful Ukraine has settled into a grinding struggle defined by precocious casualties and incremental territorial shifts. Russia inactive controls astir one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, portion Kyiv has precocious clawed backmost constricted crushed successful counteroffensives. Military estimates enactment Russian losses astatine astir 1.2 cardinal casualties since 2022, with Ukrainian losses betwixt 500,000 and 600,000, underscoring the standard of attrition connected some sides.

Diplomacy has intensified alongside the fighting. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin successful Alaska past August for high-stakes talks aimed astatine advancing negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has traveled to Washington aggregate times since Trump returned to office, including a contentious Oval Office gathering successful Feb. 2025 and a follow-up sojourn aboriginal successful the year.

Rescuers transportation a wounded pistillate aft Russian onslaught that deed a residential gathering successful Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, June 7, 2025.  (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

The astir caller U.S. engagement with some sides came during trilateral negotiations successful Abu Dhabi earlier this twelvemonth and much taking spot successful Geneva connected Feb. 17–18, wherever peculiar envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian and Ukrainian delegations arsenic portion of ongoing efforts to broker a settlement.

As the warfare enters its 5th year, erstwhile officials and analysts accidental the adjacent signifier could unfold on 3 imaginable paths: prolonged stalemate, shifting Ukrainian momentum, oregon a unsafe erosion of Western resolve.

Rescuers enactment astatine the tract of an flat buildings damaged during a Russian onslaught successful Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Scenario one: Prolonged stalemate

The astir contiguous trajectory is continuation. The warfare remains defined by attrition, with neither broadside delivering a decisive stroke and negotiations producing small progress.

Ret. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, erstwhile NATO ultimate allied commandant of Europe, said Moscow is not winning contempt its territorial hold, "There isn't a victor close now."

"Russia, supposedly a satellite superpower with 1 of the world's astir apt apical 3 satellite armies and apical 4 satellite aerial forces, successful 12 years has gained astir 20% of Ukraine. And they person mislaid some, say, implicit 1.2 cardinal successful the struggle truthful far. It's a struggle that Ukraine is moving hard to manage. It's besides a struggle that Russia is not, I repeat, not winning," helium said.

ZELENSKYY CLAIMS US GAVE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA A DEADLINE TO REACH PEACE AGREEMENT

Service members of the onslaught UAV platoon of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces power an FPV drone with optical fibre guidance, with a parcel containing items attached, for transportation to their brothers‑in‑arms astatine a presumption successful the frontline municipality of Kostiantynivka, amid Russia’s onslaught connected Ukraine, successful Donetsk region, Ukraine, Feb. 17, 2026.  (Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters)

Scenario two: Ukrainian momentum reshapes diplomacy

Recent battlefield developments suggest different possibility. Breedlove pointed to accelerated Ukrainian gains pursuing disruptions successful Russia’s command-and-control systems.

"In the past 3 oregon 4 days due to the fact that of the nonaccomplishment of the Starlink bid and power system, Ukraine launched an violative and they person snatched backmost months of Russian gains successful 3 days, three-pronged push, hundreds of quadrate miles regained, and Russia is backing up successful respective places close now."

National information experts told Fox News Digital that Russia is facing tangible consequences for the warfare done its web of proxy countries that person straight endured the mightiness of the U.S. subject and subsequently near Russia with less streams of gross and resources.  (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Carrie Filipetti, enforcement manager of the Vandenberg Coalition, said specified advances could displacement leverage astatine the negotiating table. "Ukraine's caller advances to recapture its territory is yet different awesome that Putin's warfare instrumentality is continuing to atrophy arsenic the satellite marks the 4th twelvemonth of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Russia's latest territorial losses shows that acold from being invincible, Putin and his service are opening to acquisition existent failures successful presumption of capableness and resources."

She added that momentum matters. "Not lone is this the astir important Ukrainian beforehand connected the battlefield successful much than 2 years, its value whitethorn beryllium felt adjacent much concretely astatine the diplomatic table. Finding a lasting and equitable bid woody done dialog is often astir momentum – and close present the Ukrainians person it."

If sustained, specified gains could change Moscow’s calculations and springiness Kyiv a stronger footing successful negotiations arsenic agelong arsenic Ukraine has beardown U.S. support, Breedlove argues, "The archetypal happening and the astir important happening Ukraine needs is simply a declaratory connection by the West and specifically by the United States that we are not going to let Russia to triumph successful Ukraine, and we volition springiness Ukraine what it needs to halt Russia… wherever Putin hears it large and wide and wherever the radical of Russia perceive it large and wide that is simply a crippled changer. And I deliberation that's erstwhile Mr. Putin is going to person to marque immoderate pugnacious decisions."

ZELENSKYY SAYS PEACE DEAL IS CLOSE AFTER TRUMP MEETING BUT TERRITORY REMAINS STICKING POINT

President Donald Trump greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy astatine the White House Aug. 18, 2025 successful Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting President Zelenskyy astatine the White House for a bilateral gathering and aboriginal an expanded gathering with European leaders to sermon a bid woody betwixt Russia and Ukraine.  (Getty Images)

Scenario three: Escalation oregon Western fatigue

A 3rd way worries immoderate Western strategists: that inconsistent enactment could prolong oregon tilt the struggle successful Russia’s favor.

Heather Nauert, who served arsenic spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State from 2017 to 2019, framed the warfare arsenic much than a territorial dispute. "As we present participate the 5th twelvemonth of Putin’s warfare successful Ukraine, we’re reminded that this struggle has ne'er been lone astir territory — it’s astir identity, faith, and the aboriginal of a escaped nation. Russia has destroyed much than 600 churches, persecuted millions of Ukrainian Christians nether occupation, and abducted much than 19,000 children successful an effort to interruption Ukraine’s spirit. President Trump's propulsion for a lasting bid indispensable beryllium backed by spot and accountability – 1 that protects guiltless lives, defends spiritual state and brings stolen children home."

Ret. Lt. Gen. Richard Newton said deterrence remains central. "Four years into this horrific war, the cardinal acquisition remains unchanged: Peace is lone imaginable erstwhile spot shapes the terms. Putin volition proceed to savagely trial our resoluteness until the costs of his aggression outweigh immoderate imaginable gain."

Soldiers of the 30th Prince Konstanty Ostrogski Mechanized Brigade occurrence a rocket from a BM-21 Grad aggregate rocket launcher astatine the positions of Russian troops successful the Donetsk direction, Ukraine, connected June 3, 2025. (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

"What Ukraine needs isn’t gestures from the world, but instead, unwavering enactment from the U.S. and Europe that convinces Moscow further advances transportation unacceptable consequences," helium argued. "Russia indispensable not prevail against Ukraine and the West. What are needed are credible information guarantees, robust violative and antiaircraft capabilities and a unified, semipermanent committedness by the West to guarantee deterrence isn’t an elusive goal, but a lasting reality."

Breedlove warned that negotiations unsocial volition not displacement the balance. "The astir unsafe script is that we bash not bash what we should bash successful Ukraine and Russia takes implicit Ukraine due to the fact that they're not done. We person a argumentation of bid done spot and we're utilizing it successful Iran. We've utilized it successful Venezuela. We're utilizing it with lipid tankers astir the world... But erstwhile it comes to Putin and Ukraine, we are bid done weakness."

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are shown successful a side-by-side photograph illustration arsenic discussions proceed implicit the aboriginal of Ukraine and a imaginable colony to the war. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP; Christian Bruna/Getty)

"Mr. Putin is making a constituent that he's successful complaint successful Ukraine, not the West and surely not America. And truthful we request to alteration that dynamic. You got bully guys and you got atrocious guys. And close present the atrocious guys person told America to instrumentality a hike. So now, alternatively than telling them what to do, we are going to the bully guys and saying, you person to springiness up much due to the fact that the atrocious guys are not playing good successful the sandbox. That's bid done weakness, not bid done strength," Breedlove concluded.

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