SpaceX vs. Tesla: Which Will Grow More Over the Next 12 Months?

1 hour ago 2

Alex Sirois

Thu, June 25, 2026 astatine 10:02 AM CDT 3 min read

Quick Read

Tesla bushed Q1 EPS estimates astatine $0.41, expanded automotive gross borderline to 21%, and grew TSLA FSD subscriptions 51% to 1.28 million.
SPCX dropped 19% successful its archetypal week post-IPO, carries antagonistic guardant EPS, and models task 27% upside astatine lone 50% confidence.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) beryllium connected other sides of the aforesaid Elon Musk story. SpaceX debuted connected June 12 and carries a $2.13 trillion marketplace cap. Tesla closed Q1 FY2026 with $22.39B successful revenue. The question is which grows faster from here.

Rockets Surge. Cars Carry the Quarter.

Tesla's net connected April 22, 2026 showed the car concern clawing backmost margin. Automotive gross borderline expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%, Non-GAAP EPS landed astatine $0.41 against a $0.3592 estimate, and Services & Other gross jumped 42% YoY to $3.75B. Full Self-Driving subscriptions reached 1.28 million, up 51%. A existent bundle flywheel is forming nether the car business.

Energy is the brushed spot. Generation and retention gross fell 12% YoY, and operating expenses climbed 37% connected AI R&D and CEO stock-based comp. Cash presumption is fortress-like astatine $44.74B.

SpaceX is the louder story. After IPOing astatine astir $1.8T, shares person dropped 19.43% successful 1 week to $154.54. Forward EPS sits astatine antagonistic $0.69. Starlink gross and motorboat cadence are the bull case. The carnivore lawsuit is the valuation itself.

Cash Machine vs. Capital Story

Lens	Company A	Company B
Core stake	Autos, FSD, Optimus, vigor	Starlink, launch, defence
Profit illustration	GAAP operating income $941M	Negative guardant EPS
Key vulnerability	Battery battalion capableness ceiling	Post-IPO lock-up overhang
Sentiment	Composite 60.97, bullish	Composite 58.85, neutral

The 2 companies are present financially intertwined. Tesla disclosed a $2B equity involvement successful SpaceX and a shared semiconductor fab task astatine the Gigafactory Texas campus. Owning 1 is partial vulnerability to the other.

Act now: the expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't marque the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

The Next 12 Months Will Be Decided by Cash Flow and Lock-Ups

For Tesla, catalysts are concrete: Cybercab measurement production, Tesla Semi ramp, Megapack 3, and Robotaxi enlargement into Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas. Watch whether FSD subscription maturation and vigor retention sorb the AI spending bulge.

For SpaceX, the ticker database differs. Polymarket traders terms a 97.9% probability SpaceX holds the higher valuation connected June 30. The harder question is what happens aft lock-ups expire. Reddit communicative inverted from "free money" to "institutional rejection" successful astir 10 days.

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