Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as oil prices surge past $100 a barrel

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  Why a steeper output curve isn’t helping banks this time

  Big banks and determination lenders are getting deed adjacent arsenic the US output curve steepens, with the 10-year output (^TNX) up astir 8 ground points implicit the past 3 days.

  The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is down astir 4.5% implicit this clip frame, portion the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) is disconnected astir 7% — its worst three-day descent since the April 7 washout past year.

  That says this is not a elemental nett involvement borderline story. A steeper curve would usually assistance banks, but the marketplace looks much focused connected recognition hazard and a broader maturation scare — particularly astir backstage credit, wherever caller accent astir Blue Owl and BlackRock withdrawal limits and broader worries astir backstage recognition vulnerability person kept investors connected edge.

  In different words, the curve is getting friendlier, but the marketplace is inactive trading financials similar a credit-stress proxy. If banks cannot drawback a bid connected a steeper curve, that is the warning.

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  Dow Transports taking the down elevator

  The Dow Transports (^DJT) are present connected way for a 9% nonaccomplishment implicit the past 3 trading days — the biggest three-day descent since the post-"Liberation Day" wipeout past April, erstwhile they fell astir 13%.

  The other Dow scale precocious failed to wide the 20,000 level aft astir 2 weeks of trying — carving retired a classical pennant illustration formation. Now it’s breaking down hard from that wedge, shedding astir 1,000 points — astir 3% — successful each of the past 3 sessions.

  The weakness is showing up crossed this energy-sensitive group, successful some consumer-facing and business-to-business names — from United Airlines (UAL), down implicit 6%, to Uber (UBER), down 3.5%, to freight and logistics sanction XPO (XPO), besides down 3.5%.

  This is inactive 1 of the clearest canaries successful the ember mine. Until the transports tin stabilize, it’s hard to marque the lawsuit that the broader maturation scare is truly easing.

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  What Brent and WTI trading astatine parity signals for lipid market

  Futures connected planetary benchmark Brent (BZ=F) and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) some jumped up to highs of $119 successful the minutes aft the lipid futures marketplace reopened, and spent the evening trading astatine the aforesaid terms point.

  That the world's 2 main pricing benchmarks began trading successful parity marked an uncommon marketplace dynamic.

  As a wide rule, WTI typically trades astatine a astir $3 to $7 discount to Brent. The dispersed reflects differences successful logistics and marketplace access.

  Brent is priced disconnected lipid produced successful the North Sea and represents the planetary seaborne crude marketplace — barrels that tin easy beryllium loaded onto tankers and shipped to large refining centers successful Europe and Asia. Because it reflects globally traded supply, Brent typically commands a premium.

  WTI, by contrast, is priced astatine retention hubs successful Cushing, Okla. While the crude itself is precocious quality, the pricing constituent is landlocked and tied much intimately to the North American pipeline system. That logistical constraint usually leaves WTI trading somewhat cheaper than Brent.

  When the 2 benchmarks commercialized astatine the aforesaid price, it typically signals that planetary proviso risks are lifting prices crossed the committee and overwhelming the mean logistics premium embedded successful Brent. Buyers who would chiefly publication shipments of Brent are present looking to WTI for backfill portion Brent remains unavailable — close now, locked successful the Persian Gulf down the Strait of Hormuz, wherever shipping has dropped to near-zero arsenic the struggle successful Iran continues to burn.

  In different words: When WTI trades successful parity to Brent, it's a wide motion the planetary lipid marketplace is nether an immense magnitude of stress.

• Stocks autumn astatine the unfastened arsenic lipid compression spooks markets

  US stocks opened little connected Monday arsenic oil's emergence supra $100 per tube unleashed fears of a much terrible economical interaction from the warfare successful the Middle East.

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) sank 0.8% astatine the open. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped astir 0.7%, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.7%.

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  Futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) crude lipid traded astatine $99 and $102 per barrel, respectively, aft spiking supra $110 concisely connected Sunday evening.

  Treasury yields besides rose, with the 10-year output (^TNX) up 2 ground points

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  Oil volatility scale hits pandemic panic levels

  Overnight, WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent crude (BZ=F) concisely surged to wrong a hairsbreadth of $120 a tube — the highest level for some since mid-2022, successful the aftermath of Russia’s penetration of Ukraine. They’ve since pulled backmost to astir $100, but they're inactive connected gait for immense monthly gains with much than 3 afloat trading weeks near successful March.

  WTI is up much than 50% this month, a determination not seen since April 2020, erstwhile lipid was rebounding from antagonistic prices. That’s besides the past clip the lipid VIX (^OVX), calculated from USO options, traded astatine a higher level and supra 100. Unlike the stocks VIX (^VIX), which typically rises erstwhile stocks fall, commodity volatility gauges — golden included — often ascent alongside the underlying price.

  Brent, meanwhile, is up much than 40% connected the month, which would people its biggest monthly summation successful information going backmost to precocious 2007.

  My archetypal enactment successful the soil was $8, which cracked connected Friday. Now the cardinal question is whether crude tin clasp supra $100, which genuinely changes each playbook astir the world.

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  Hims & Hers shares soar aft quality of woody that Novo Nordisk volition administer drugs connected Hims platform

  Shares successful Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) soared Monday morning, picking up much than 50% successful premarket trading aft reports that a longstanding feud with Novo Nordisk (NVO) has ended and that the drugmaker agreed to administer its products done the Hims platform.

  Novo Nordisk shares gained 1%.

  Hims and Novo Nordisk could denote a ceremonial concern arsenic soon arsenic Monday, according to Bloomberg, which broke the news. The reported woody comes aft Novo Nordisk sued Hims successful February, accusing the level of distributing copycat versions of its Wegovy weight-loss pill and violating patent protections.

  This marks the 2nd clip the companies person reportedly entered into a concern of this kind. Novo Nordisk exited the archetypal woody wrong 2 months aft accusing Hims of refusing to halt distributing copycats of Novo Nordisk's drugs.

  “The large contented with Hims is that we had an statement that the wide compounding would halt and unluckily it didn’t stop,” Ludovic Helfgott, enforcement vice president of merchandise and portfolio strategy astatine Novo, said successful an interrogation quoted by Bloomberg. “That’s wherefore we ended the partnership.”

• Airline stocks descend amid spike successful lipid prices, expectations of higher summons prices

  Airline stocks sold disconnected connected Monday arsenic spiking crude lipid prices implicit the play pointed to higher pitchy substance costs.

  Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) dropped 3.1%, American Airlines (AAL) declined 3.8%, and United Airlines (UAL) fell 2.8% earlier the opening doorbell connected Monday.

  Airlines nary longer hedge substance prices, which relationship for betwixt a 4th to one-fifth of their wide costs. On Friday, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the interaction of higher substance costs connected airfare would “probably commencement quick.”

  Over the past month, the US airlines person seen banal drawdowns of betwixt 20% and 26%.

  European aerial carriers Lufthansa (LHA.DE) tumbled astir 5%, portion British Airways and Aer Lingus genitor institution International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L) slid 3%. Air France-KLM (AF.PA) besides declined by 3%.

• Global enslaved rout grows arsenic lipid leap upends interest-rate outlook

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.

• Europe's bluish chips caput for correction arsenic lipid soars

  From Bloomberg:

  Read much here.

• Stagflation trades expanse markets arsenic Trump signals widening war

  Optimism for a speedy solution of the struggle successful the Middle East is rapidly ebbing successful fiscal markets.

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.

• G7 to sermon associated merchandise of exigency lipid reserves

  The Financial Times reports:

  Read much here (premium subscribers)

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  How immoderate connected Wall Street are thinking

  Veteran strategist Chris Rupkey has this coagulated caller blistery instrumentality connected the lipid surge below.

  I would accidental his presumption is inactive acold from the statement (we spell into a recession due to the fact that of the Iran situation), But we should beryllium connected the lookout for commentary similar this successful the adjacent fewer days:

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  Goldman weighs successful connected lipid surge

  Goldman Sachs' caller telephone connected lipid already looks outdated, fixed the outsized determination successful prices we person seen since past night.

• Asian gauges hammered arsenic soaring lipid terms shakes planetary markets

  Major gauges crossed Asia fell upwards of 5% arsenic the US-Israeli warfare with Iran was seen to origin planetary instability. The drops person been driven by surging lipid prices, a imaginable indicator of an incoming recession, accro

  AP Finance reports:

  Read much here.

• Gold falls against backdrop of instability from lipid spike

  Bloomberg reports:

  Read much here.

• Oil pushes past $100 a tube successful fastest rally since 1980s

  Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports:

  Read much here.