Tesla Heads Into Its July 22 Earnings Down 22%, and One Firm Sees a 67% Plunge From Here. Who's Right?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) heads into its second-quarter net study this Wednesday, July 22, carrying 2 stories that can't some beryllium right. The electric-car shaper conscionable delivered 480,126 vehicles successful Q2, up 25% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth and its highest quarterly full since the 3rd 4th of 2025. Yet the banal sits astatine astir $391 arsenic of this writing, down 22% from its 52-week precocious of $498.83.

And 1 Wall Street steadfast thinks the diminution is conscionable getting started. Last week, Wells Fargo raised its Tesla terms people to $130 from $125 portion keeping its underweight rating. From today's price, that people implies a driblet of astir 67%.

Missed Nvidia successful 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" awesome flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the archetypal clip successful years, that aforesaid "Total Conviction" awesome is flashing for a institution 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

The firm's reasoning, successful essence, is that Tesla is selling much cars than it has successful immoderate 4th since the 3rd 4th of 2025 but earning little connected each one, with terms cuts and rising input costs (memory chips, copper, and lithium among them) eating distant the gains.

So, who's right?

The bull lawsuit is already nationalist

The strongest grounds for the bulls is volume. Tesla's 480,126 second-quarter deliveries were up 25% from the 384,122 vehicles it delivered successful the year-ago quarter.

Delivery maturation is besides accelerating, up from a 6% year-over-year summation successful the archetypal quarter. After a agelong long of shrinking conveyance sales, maturation is back.

The remainder of the concern is moving again, too. First-quarter gross roseate 16% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $22.4 billion, with services and different gross climbing 42%.

And aft a brushed archetypal 4th successful which vigor gross fell 12% twelvemonth implicit year, vigor retention deployments rebounded to 13.5 gigawatt-hours successful Q2, up 41% from the year-ago play and up sharply from 8.8 gigawatt-hours successful Q1.

Even the businesses investors are truly paying up for are progressing. Tesla launched unsupervised robotaxi rides successful Dallas and Houston successful April, and it received support for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) successful the Netherlands the aforesaid month. Its progressive Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions reached 1.28 cardinal successful the archetypal quarter, up 51% twelvemonth implicit year.

And the institution has the resources to support backing its ambitions successful autonomy and robotics. Tesla ended Q1 with $44.7 cardinal successful cash, currency equivalents, and short-term investments, up from $44.1 cardinal astatine the extremity of 2025.

That's an improving picture, and I don't deliberation the bears tin disregard it.