Tesla Q1 analyst reaction: Capex rise a surprise but needed for AI, Optimus, robotaxi, chip fab build-out

Though Tesla (TSLA) banal is little pursuing the merchandise of its archetypal 4th net report, Wall Street analysts are mostly encouraged, though cautious.

Tesla’s larger-than-expected $25 cardinal superior expenditures usher caught galore disconnected guard, arsenic it was much than investors expected.

“TSLA would beryllium moving higher after-hours, alternatively of trading sideways, if not for a $5B summation successful the 2026 capex outlook,” Piper Sandler expert Alexander Potter wrote connected Wednesday night. “The erstwhile outlook (of $20B) was already astir 2x higher than Tesla's erstwhile peak, and the caller outlook (of $25B) illuminates the standard of Tesla's ambition. Since Q1 capex was lone $2.49B, Tesla's updated guidance implies powerfully antagonistic escaped currency travel for the remainder of 2026.”

Potter added that connected the positive side, Tesla’s AI investments are “bearing fruit,” with Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions successful peculiar jumping. Potter reiterated his Overweight standing and $500 terms target.

Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco echoed the sentiments regarding superior expenditures, but added that the short-term symptom is worthy it for Tesla’s semipermanent prospects.

“Tesla is entering a signifier of materially higher capex arsenic it expands its manufacturing footprint crossed energy, autos, and semiconductors, portion besides investing heavy successful compute and next-generation carnal AI infrastructure (robotaxi and humanoids),” Percoco wrote aboriginal Thursday, adding that the slope reiterates its Equal Weight standing and $415 terms target. “We presumption this concern rhythm arsenic indispensable to found a durable enactment presumption successful autonomy and carnal AI, and stay assured successful Tesla’s semipermanent trajectory.”

Percoco added that Tesla’s robotaxi rollout, implementing a “slow and steady” approach, is the close mode to go, contempt being slower than investors expect. Accumulating NHTSA information that tracks information metrics of the robotaxi fleet versus rival Waymo’s advancement successful its aboriginal stages volition beryllium key, helium said.

Caution was the sanction of the crippled post-earnings for William Blair’s Jed Dorsheimer arsenic well. An “abundance of caution” attack to robotaxi enlargement is commendable, helium said, arsenic a high-profile incidental oregon clang would beryllium a immense backward measurement for Tesla, and the argumentation scenery would tilt against it.

Dorsheimer was besides connected committee with Tesla and CEO Elon Musk’s cautious attack to Optimus robots.

“Optimus V3 was expected to debut successful April, but Musk pushed that backmost until accumulation commencement due to the fact that competitors analyse and copy. The accumulation commencement is slated for July/August, but the ramp-up is “literally intolerable to predict,” helium said. “To Musk’s credit, afloat disassembling a conveyance enactment and lasting up a wholly caller merchandise enactment successful a fewer months is simply a herculean task.”