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David Dierking, The Motley Fool
Thu, June 11, 2026 astatine 11:43 AM CDT 4 min read
The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) whitethorn beryllium successful the process of mounting up for beardown gains successful the 2nd fractional of the year. Since 1990, determination person been 15 occasions wherever the scale was up much than 5% by June 1. In 14 of those years, the S&P 500 was besides up successful the 2nd half. The median second-half instrumentality successful those years was 12.7%.
The scale entered June 2026 up 7.7%, making it the 16th qualifier for this setup. The crisp diminution connected June 5 whitethorn person shaken capitalist assurance regarding wherever the marketplace mightiness spell from here. But if you propulsion backmost the lens and look astatine full returns truthful acold this year, affirmative momentum is inactive intact.
Missed Nvidia successful 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" awesome flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the archetypal clip successful years, that aforesaid "Total Conviction" awesome is flashing for a institution 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
History suggests that investors would beryllium making a mistake selling their stocks here.
The S&P 500 could beryllium successful for a beardown 2nd fractional
Both short-term and semipermanent signals are looking affirmative here. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has experienced 107 sessions with a single-day diminution of much than 3%. Historically, that's really been a bully motion much often than not. The median 21-day guardant instrumentality pursuing those days: 2.1%. Investors could beryllium viewing these arsenic buy-the-dip opportunities.
If you privation to get a spot much granular, let's look astatine June trading days since 1990 wherever the S&P 500 fell by much than 2%. Following those 23 instances, the median 21-day guardant instrumentality was 3.8%. The median 63-day instrumentality was 5.9%. It's not a immense illustration size, but determination is immoderate imaginable signaling here.
A 93% occurrence complaint
The stronger signal, though, is the full-year setup. Here are the 15 years since 1990 erstwhile the S&P 500 was up much than 5% by June 1, on with what the afloat archetypal and 2nd halves of the twelvemonth looked like:
| 1991 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 27.8% |
| 1995 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 34.2% |
| 1996 | 7.6% | 10.9% | 19.3% |
| 1997 | 14.8% | 14.7% | 31.7% |
| 1998 | 11.9% | 12.7% | 26.1% |
| 1999 | 5.4% | 13.5% | 19.6% |
| 2003 | 6.4% | 15% | 22.3% |
| 2007 | 8.5% | (4.4%) | 3.7% |
| 2013 | 12.2% | 12.7% | 26.4% |
| 2014 | 5.1% | 7% | 12.4% |
| 2017 | 7.6% | 10% | 18.4% |
| 2019 | 9.3% | 17.7% | 28.7% |
| 2021 | 13.5% | 13.4% | 28.8% |
| 2023 | 10.4% | 13% | 24.7% |
| 2024 | 11.4% | 11.3% | 24% |
| 2026 | 7.7% | ? | ? |
Data source: Yahoo! Finance.
That's 14 retired of 15 affirmative 2nd halves, which is simply a 93% occurrence rate. The lone objection was 2007, erstwhile the lodging situation astir blew up the full fiscal sector. That's not what's happening today. Bank equilibrium sheets are good capitalized, recognition spreads are inactive narrow, and there's nary structural equivalent to the shadiness banking leverage that astir broke the full system.
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