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Michael Williams
Tue, March 24, 2026 astatine 8:56 AM CDT 4 min read
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The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down astir 4% year-to-date and disconnected 5% from a period ago, portion the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has fallen 6% successful the past period arsenic the VIX climbs toward the 30 threshold amid geopolitical tensions and rising lipid prices supra $100 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury output has risen from 4% to 4.4%, indicating ostentation and proviso disruption fears alternatively than a accepted risk-off formation to safety.
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The Iran struggle is driving contiguous volatility done crude lipid spikes and infrastructure disruptions, portion deteriorating user sentiment astatine 56.4 and compressed output curves awesome fragile economical confidence.
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The VIX closed past week astatine astir 27, an 11% leap connected the last trading day, and aboriginal signals this week amusement it climbing further. The fearfulness gauge present sits astatine its 93rd percentile implicit the past year, meaning volatility has been this elevated oregon higher lone 7% of trading days successful the past 12 months. The 30 threshold marks the constituent wherever options markets awesome genuine fearfulness alternatively than elevated caution, and the existent setup has aggregate catalysts that could propulsion it through.
The superior unit down this volatility surge is the progressive geopolitical struggle betwixt the U.S.-Israeli confederation and Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude roseate 2% backmost supra $90 a tube and Brent jumped backmost supra $101 connected Tuesday morning, arsenic warring continued contempt archetypal hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp. Iranian authorities media pushed backmost connected Trump's claims of productive negotiations, saying nary nonstop talks had occurred, wiping retired overmuch of Monday's alleviation rally.
The market's sensitivity to each determination header reflects however unresolved the concern remains. Amazon Web Services reported its Bahrain portion was disrupted owed to drone activity, the 2nd outage since the struggle began. Geopolitical hazard has expanded beyond vigor markets into Big Tech's carnal infrastructure successful the Middle East.
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The VIX reflects the outgo of hedging the S&P 500, and the underlying scale has been deteriorating. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down astir 4% year-to-date and disconnected astir 5% from its level a period ago. The Dow has followed a akin path, declining sharply implicit the past month. Small caps, tracked by iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM), person absorbed the sharpest one-month deed astatine down 6%, which is emblematic erstwhile volatility spikes: smaller companies person little equilibrium expanse cushion and investors trim hazard vulnerability quickly.
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