Tractor Supply's Earnings Report Next Week Could Disappoint. But Are Shares a Buy Anyway?

• The agrarian retailer's fourth-quarter results are highly babelike connected wintertime weather.

• In its third-quarter update, absorption was upbeat astir Tractor Supply's maturation imaginable successful 2026.

• In the retailer's upcoming report, investors should look to management's commentary connected full-year expectations.

• 10 stocks we similar amended than Tractor Supply ›

Tractor Supply (NASDAQ: TSCO) reports its fourth-quarter results earlier marketplace unfastened connected Jan. 29, and the header numbers could onshore connected the softer broadside of expectations. But adjacent if this does happen, it's astir apt not worthy fretting over. The upwind whitethorn beryllium the culprit.

Tractor Supply's 4th fourth is highly babelike connected upwind -- and upwind trends weren't precise favorable for the institution during the period. But the retailer has immoderate positives that should marque it casual to place a weather-related setback beyond the company's control: Management seems upbeat astir 2026's potential.

Here's wherefore the bull lawsuit volition apt stay intact for the agrarian retailer adjacent if Q4 fails to impress.

When Tractor Supply reported third-quarter results successful October, it posted $3.7 cardinal successful nett sales, up 7.2% twelvemonth implicit year, and comparable store income roseate 3.9%. This was a bully acceleration from 4.5% income maturation successful Q2 and 2.1% income maturation successful Q1.

But absorption besides provided guidance connected a wide scope of outcomes for Q4 regarding comparable store income growth. Specifically, absorption said fourth-quarter comparable store income could turn astatine a complaint anyplace betwixt 1% and 5%.

Why specified a wide range?

"It is each astir the acold upwind and wintertime that starts to hap successful December," said Tractor Supply CEO Hal Lawton during the company's third-quarter net telephone erstwhile discussing the biggest drivers for however Q4 comparable store income tin play out. Typically, the much terrible the wintertime storms are, the amended Tractor Supply's concern fares during the period.

So, it is not hard to spot wherefore investors mightiness beryllium cautious astir wherever the institution landed wrong that range. NOAA's nationalist clime summaries showed the contiguous U.S. ran unusually lukewarm successful October and November, with November ranking arsenic the fourth-warmest connected record. And the past period of the twelvemonth ranked arsenic the fifth-warmest December implicit the past 131 years.

Of course, a mild upwind 4th does not warrant anemic fourth-quarter results, but it does rise the likelihood that request for cold-weather items was not arsenic beardown a tailwind arsenic absorption had hoped.

But there's inactive a batch for Tractor Supply investors to beryllium excited about. The astir encouraging portion of the company's third-quarter update was not its beardown third-quarter maturation but what absorption said astir the request situation for 2026.