Trump Says He's 'Not Putting Troops Anywhere' As Brent Crude Hits $110, But What Do Prediction Markets Say?

President Donald Trump told reporters Thursday helium won’t nonstop troops to the Middle East and said helium ordered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt striking Iranian vigor infrastructure.

The comments came aft a accelerated overnight escalation: Israel deed Iran’s South Pars state tract connected Wednesday, and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting LNG facilities successful Qatar, refineries successful Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and state infrastructure successful the UAE.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the U.S. has struck implicit 7,000 targets crossed Iran and sunk much than 120 Iranian ships, adjacent arsenic Trump maintained helium won’t deploy crushed forces.

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Iran’s strategy appears to beryllium attrition: support the Strait shut, dispersed the symptom crossed Gulf allies, and hold for the economical unit to unit Washington to the table.

Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire market, with $22.2 cardinal successful volume, gives conscionable 6% likelihood of a woody by March 31. That rises to 31% by extremity of April, and 52% by the extremity of June.

A abstracted declaration connected whether U.S. forces volition participate Iran was pricing 18% likelihood earlier March 31, 49% earlier April 30 and 65% earlier year-end.

Read together, the 2 markets overgarment a picture: a ceasefire is months distant astatine best, and with a 5th of planetary lipid supply, fertilizer feedstocks and commercialized shipping bottlenecked astatine the Strait of Hormuz, traders are progressively pricing successful the anticipation that Trump’s “no troops” stance doesn’t past the economical harm of a prolonged blockade.

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Brent crude deed $115 Thursday earlier settling astir $109, up 50% since the warfare began Feb. 28. It was astatine $69 successful aboriginal February.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund touched a 52-week precocious adjacent $59.62, up implicit 30% year-to-date, with Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. leading.

The header numbers whitethorn beryllium understating the damage. U.S. crude is trading astatine a $20-plus discount to Brent, 1 of the largest gaps connected record, portion carnal crude successful Oman is reportedly supra $150 a barrel. European earthy state jumped different 30% Thursday. Analysts astatine The Kobeissi Letter called it what whitethorn beryllium the largest vigor situation successful history.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated lifting sanctions connected Iranian lipid tankers and tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Neither moved prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a 5th of planetary lipid trade, remains efficaciously shut.