U.S. grocery unit sales falling, squeezing PepsiCo and food companies

American market shoppers are buying less items, and the cushion that rising prices erstwhile provided to the nutrient manufacture is shrinking, according to caller investigation from Bain & Company utilizing NielsenIQ market information shared with CNBC.

Grocery portion income — a measurement of idiosyncratic items purchased — were down 1.8% successful June comparative to the aforesaid period past year. That marks a notable plaything from June 2025, erstwhile the aforesaid metric was up 0.1% connected a year-over-year basis. Prices proceed climbing astatine astir 2% to 3% a year, but that tailwind has mislaid its powerfulness to offset declining volumes and prop up full income figures.

The Bain investigation points to respective overlapping pressures connected consumers. Food astatine the market store present costs consumers astir a 3rd much than it did successful 2019, and gasoline expenses person climbed arsenic well. Households astatine the little extremity of the income standard person been squeezed further by cuts to SNAP payment amounts and stricter rules governing who qualifies for the program, according to CNBC.

"That large market banal up travel that costs you $300 successful 2019, present costing you $400," Kurt Grichel, caput of Bain's Americas retail practice, said. "Even that upper-income consumer, you're talking a large capable implicit dollar alteration that radical commencement to consciousness a small spot of that sticker daze and commencement to store around."

A Bain U.S. Consumer Pulse Wave survey conducted successful May recovered that 80% of Americans are inactive trying to walk less, portion 28% are cutting backmost connected groceries. Among that group, 56% said they are trading down to cheaper brands, 49% said they are buying less items, and 44% said they are relying much heavy connected coupons and promotions.

The downstream consequences of these changes are being felt crossed the market sector. Retailers including Walmart and Kroger person emphasized terms cuts and value-focused promotions to pull shoppers. Walmart announced summertime terms reductions connected beef, crystal cream, and different products.

Joe Feldman, an expert astatine Telsey Advisory Group, said grocers person been pressing suppliers to little prices wherever possible. "The full manufacture is trying to get backmost to portion growth, not conscionable dollar growth," Feldman said.

Grichel said the competitory borderline volition spell to grocers that terms sharply connected high-visibility products. "Most things similar crushed beef, chicken, milk, eggs, and they're utilizing a operation of promotions, loyalty programs, personalization, backstage statement to stitch unneurotic an wide worth proposition that customers tin recognize and trust," helium said.