We’re Bullish on Adobe Despite 40% Decline From Peak Levels

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) has been beaten down portion fundamentals improved. Our 24/7 Wall St. terms people is $283.39, astir 26.72% supra the existent terms of $223.64. We complaint the banal a bargain with 90% exemplary confidence. An $88.9 cardinal bundle franchise with AI-first ARR northbound of $500 million, trading astatine a guardant P/E adjacent 9.

Adobe Was Cut Nearly successful Half While Fundamentals Improved

ADBE is down 39.79% implicit the past twelvemonth and 36.1% twelvemonth to date, beneath the 52-week precocious of $376.16 and conscionable supra the $190.12 low.

Q2 FY26, reported June 11, 2026, was a record. Revenue deed $6.62 cardinal (up 13% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $5.96 marked a 5th consecutive beat, and full ARR closed astatine $27.10 billion. Management raised FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $24.35 to $24.45.

The Case for $322 and Higher

Our bull script takes ADBE to $322.51, a 44.21% instrumentality implicit 12 months. Firefly ARR is approaching $300 cardinal and grew astir 50% 4th implicit quarter, Firefly endeavor ARR is up 4x YoY, and Creative freemium MAU jumped from 50 cardinal to 90 million.

Acrobat AI Assistant paid MAU grew 150%+ YoY. Options positioning skews bullish with a full-chain put/call ratio of 0.46. The Semrush woody adds astir $480 cardinal successful ARR, and statement of $272.48 implies meaningful upside.

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What Could Go Wrong

Our carnivore script finishes astatine $249.71, inactive an 11.66% return. CEO Shantanu Narayen is transitioning to Board Chair, CFO Dan Durn departed June 15, 2026, and Q2 GAAP EPS of $4.25 was weighed by a $70 cardinal goodwill impairment and a $30 cardinal litigation accrual.