Weibo Corporation (WB): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis connected Weibo Corporation connected nVariant Capital Fund’s Substack. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected WB. Weibo Corporation's stock was trading astatine $10.99 arsenic of January 13th. WB’s trailing and guardant P/E were 6.28 and 6.32 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Weibo Corporation, done its subsidiaries, operates as a societal media level for radical to create, discover, and administer contented successful the People's Republic of China. WB remains a peculiar concern case, blending stagnation with latent value. The company’s halfway operations person shown declining revenues and operating profits, portion absorption has offered little indication of a strategical turnaround.

Despite caller gains, with the banal rising from $7.84 successful summertime 2024 to $10.14 and paying an 82-cent yearly dividend, the concern is nary longer exceptionally inexpensive connected a currency travel basis, trading astir 9 times after-tax operating earnings. Shareholder returns look limited, arsenic buybacks simply offset ongoing stock-based compensation, highlighting a deficiency of assertive superior allocation.

Yet, the company’s hidden worth lies successful its 26.57% involvement successful INMYSHOW, a $10 cardinal Shanghai-listed entity, which is carried connected Weibo’s books astatine conscionable $300 million. This creates a important nett currency value, implying an intrinsic worthy of roughly $16 per share, acold supra the existent marketplace price. This embedded plus creates a compelling crushed to buy, contempt operational mediocrity and absorption shortcomings.

The juxtaposition of a stagnating operating concern against a profoundly undervalued strategical concern positions Weibo arsenic a banal that whitethorn underperform successful the adjacent word but offers a semipermanent asymmetric risk/reward opportunity. Investors look the hostility betwixt the ongoing operational resistance and the latent worth successful its equity holdings, making the lawsuit that portion short-term show whitethorn disappoint, the underlying nett currency worth provides a durable level and a imaginable catalyst for eventual rerating if the involvement successful INMYSHOW is realized oregon revalued by the market. Consequently, Weibo represents a patient, value-oriented play, wherever patience is required to seizure the embedded upside.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis connected Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) by LongYield successful May 2025, which highlighted the company’s beardown AI-driven advertizing growth, disciplined outgo management, and high-margin Family of Apps conception arsenic cardinal drivers of upside. META’s banal terms has appreciated by astir 10.28% since our coverage owed to beardown net results and accelerating AI integration. nVariant Capital Fund shares a antithetic position connected Weibo Corporation (WB) but emphasizes the hidden worth successful its 26.57% involvement successful INMYSHOW, creating semipermanent asymmetric upside contempt stagnant operations.