Why AST SpaceMobile Stock Crashed Today

So it seems I was some close and right astir the SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) IPO.

Right, due to the fact that I predicted SpaceX IPO fever could thrust abstraction stocks higher. Indeed, shares of outer communications institution AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS) were astatine 1 constituent up 61% since my prediction.

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I was besides right, unfortunately, astir what would hap connected the IPO date. And this, successful a nutshell, is wherefore AST banal fell 10.5% done 11:25 a.m. ET today.

Three scenarios for SpaceX and abstraction stocks

Four months ago, I ran down 3 theories for however the SpaceX IPO mightiness play out, some for SpaceX and for different abstraction stocks. Briefly, these scenarios went similar this:

• Option 1: SpaceX IPO fever could marque abstraction stocks much popular, driving up their banal prices.

• Option 2: SpaceX could marque abstraction stocks not named SpaceX less popular, if they suffered by examination to SpaceX, which is truthful overmuch bigger and much profitable than SpaceX's competitors.

• Or Option 3: Investors wanting to bargain SpaceX banal mightiness merchantability shares of different abstraction stocks to rise currency to bargain SpaceX instead.

What's adjacent for AST SpaceMobile banal

The information that AST banal went up truthful overmuch successful 4 months means I was close astir Option 1. The information that AST banal is selling disconnected contiguous -- the aforesaid time investors are presumably preparing to wage for their caller SpaceX IPO shares -- suggests I was close astir Option 3 arsenic well.

And Option 2? This remains to beryllium seen. SpaceX's IPO prospectus made wide SpaceX isn't astir arsenic profitable arsenic we erstwhile believed -- indeed, that it's losing money. Bigger isn't needfully better, and AST could inactive beryllium a winner. It inactive needs to get immoderate much satellites successful orbit, of course, and statesman beta testing.

But astatine slightest there's a chance.

Should you bargain banal successful AST SpaceMobile close now?

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