Will the market crash in 2026? Billionaire investor says it feels ‘exactly like 1999.’ Catch the run-up before the fall

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With U.S. stocks powering higher, enthusiasm is moving hot. But billionaire hedge money manager Paul Tudor Jones says today’s situation is giving him flashbacks to the dot-com roar — and not successful a lukewarm and fuzzy way.

“It’s similar the Prince opus — enactment similar it’s 1999, right?” Jones said successful an interrogation with CNBC’s Squawk Box, adding that the setup “feels precisely similar 1999 (1).”

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He pointed to what happened next: “Remember, the Nasdaq doubled betwixt the archetypal week of October ’99 and March of 2000. So if it looks similar a duck and quacks similar a duck, it’s astir apt not a chicken, right?”

The late-’99 banal marketplace roar was breathtaking, but the aftermath was brutal. From March 2000 to October 2002, the Nasdaq Composite plunged astir 78% arsenic the dot-com bubble burst (2). With echoes of that epoch increasing louder, galore investors mightiness presume the safest determination present is to measurement aside.

But Jones suggests sitting it retired could mean missing a almighty finish.

“So if you don't play it, you're missing retired connected the juice,” helium warned. “If you bash play it, you person to person truly blessed feet, due to the fact that determination volition beryllium a really, truly atrocious extremity to it.”

He underscored that late-cycle rallies often present the biggest gains. In bull markets, helium said, “the top terms appreciation is ever the 12 months preceding the top.”

His takeaway? “You person to presumption yourself similar it's October ’99.”

In his view, a important run-up whitethorn inactive beryllium ahead. In fact, Jones believes today’s backdrop could beryllium “so overmuch much perchance explosive than 1999.”

Jones is assured that today’s run-up could beryllium bigger than 1999 due to the fact that of 2 forces: cardinal slope argumentation and authorities spending.

He noted that successful 1999, the Federal Reserve was raising rates and the national authorities was moving a fund surplus.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve chopped rates 3 times successful 2025.

And though the U.S. shortage fell by 15% year-over-year successful 2025, it’s expected to turn again this twelvemonth owed to President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to Kelly Evans, co-host of CNBC’s Power Lunch (3).