Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market

The likelihood that the Trump household volition motorboat a full-fledged prediction marketplace merchandise this twelvemonth conscionable plummeted.

Last year, the Trump Media and Technology Group announced Truth Predict, a concern with the cryptocurrency institution Crypto.com. The archetypal announcement touted Truth Predict arsenic a “new product” that would let Truth Social users to marque trades connected sports, inflation, elections, and much done an “embedded” prediction marketplace service. “For excessively long, planetary elites person intimately controlled these markets—with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing accusation and empowering mundane Americans to harness the contented of the crowd, turning escaped code into actionable foresight,” then-CEO Devin Nunes said successful the October 2025 property release.

At the time, the institution elaborate however Truth Social users would beryllium capable to person the platform’s existing “Truth gem” currency into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens, and past “apply” them to Truth Predict trades. Now, Trump Media is framing the task differently. In its latest nationalist filing, the institution indicated that the prediction marketplace “remains successful development,” but that its offering would beryllium initially constricted to a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, the US-based prediction marketplace level that Crypto.com launched successful February 2026.

What is simply a “marketing and promotion collaboration,” exactly? Hard to say, arsenic neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to questions astir what the statement entails. “We’re encouraged by the advancement we’ve made processing Truth Predict successful concern with CDNA and look guardant to bringing this breathtaking diagnostic to Truth Social’s users,” Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. (“CDNA” refers to Crypto.com’s affiliated US-regulated derivatives speech and clearinghouse, which is called Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. Really rolls disconnected the tongue.)

Prediction markets are a quick-growing and hotly contested industry. Donald Trump, Jr. has ties to respective starring markets; helium is simply a paid advisor to Kalshi and an capitalist successful Polymarket done his task superior firm. President Donald Trump has made fewer nationalist comments astir prediction markets, though this April helium told reporters that helium did not “like it conceptually” and that helium was “not blessed with immoderate of that stuff.”

Still, the Trump medication has mostly taken a affable stance towards the manufacture done its apical national regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Biden-era CFTC banned Polymarket and adjacent raided its CEO Shayne Coplan’s home; the Trump-era CFTC dropped the investigation. The Trump-era CFTC besides insists that it has exclusive jurisdiction implicit the industry, and has opposed authorities efforts to intervene, filing its ain lawsuits against what CFTC president Michael Selig describes arsenic “overzealous authorities regulators.” Selig is locked successful a tense conflict with authorities regulators implicit however the instrumentality should use to these products; states similar Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts are bringing companies including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to court, arguing that they request to abide by authorities gambling rules.

One of the distinguishing characteristics of OG.com is that it initially planned to let participants to commercialized connected margin, which means that radical would beryllium capable to get funds to spot trades alternatively than putting up each the financing themselves. Margin trading is an established signifier successful the fiscal derivatives world, but comparatively caller to prediction markets; it inherently involves an added grade of hazard due to the fact that it allows traders to usage wealth they don’t have. (It’s unclear if OG.com volition rotation this out. When WIRED reached retired to the institution to inquire if borderline trading is live, it received an email backmost from “the OG team” stating “margin trading is not an offered product.”)

The upshot is that astatine immoderate constituent successful the adjacent future, a Truth Social idiosyncratic whitethorn beryllium capable to toggle betwixt speechmaking Trump’s all-caps posts and borrowing ample sums of wealth to physique a World Cup parlay—but depending connected however the “marketing and promotion collaboration” is acceptable up, they whitethorn not really beryllium placing trades wrong the societal network.